Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Rinya Nakamura won · U-DEC R3

Elo1519

Elo1484

Rinya NakamuravsFernie GarciaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, August 26, 2023Kallang, Singapore

Official fight result

Rinya Nakamura won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Rinya Nakamura wins(92.5%)

Actual result: Rinya Nakamura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rinya Nakamura at -950 American odds

+$11 profit

$111 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Fernie Garcia enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Rinya Nakamura has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Rinya Nakamura has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Rinya Nakamura (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rinya Nakamura

Red Corner

Fernie Garcia

Blue Corner

-950

(90%)

Vegas Odds

+625

(14%)

1519

Elo

1484

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rinya Nakamura

oldest →

KOvs Toshiomi Kazama · Feb 23

vs Carlos Vera · Feb 24

vs Muin Gafurov · Jan 25

KOvs Nathan Fletcher · Aug 25

latest

Fernie GarciaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Journey Newson · May 22

vs Brady Hiestand · Nov 22

KOvs Hyder Amil · Feb 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rinya NakamuraMetricFernie Garcia

3.27

Strikes / min

2.04

1.72

Strikes absorbed / min

3.79

63%

Strike defense

48%

2.58

TDs / 15 min

0.28

100%

Takedown defense

50%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.55Δ 3.30 — meaningful gap-1.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rinya NakamuraFernie Garcia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rinya Nakamura(5 fights)Fernie Garcia(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +34.7|Blue -34.7

Recent Form

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rinya NakamuraTargetFernie Garcia

By target zone

52% acc · 44%

Head

17% acc · 60%

77% acc · 28%

Body

57% acc · 27%

77% acc · 28%

Leg

33% acc · 13%

By position

57% acc · 69%

Distance

21% acc · 87%

Clinch

0% acc

85% acc · 31%

Ground

100% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rinya Nakamura rounds

even

Fernie Garcia rounds

Round 1Rinya Nakamura edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control3:55

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Rinya Nakamura edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control2:31

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Rinya Nakamura edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control3:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 57

Sig Strikes

15 / 66

63.7%

Sig Str %

26%

56 / 84

Total Strikes

50 / 106

4 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:26

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Fernie Garcia	3 / 8	21 / 27	0 / 0	0
1	Rinya Nakamura	9 / 13	17 / 25	2 / 2	1
2	Fernie Garcia	6 / 28	16 / 39	0 / 0	1
2	Rinya Nakamura	11 / 22	17 / 29	1 / 1	1
3	Fernie Garcia	6 / 30	13 / 40	0 / 0	0
3	Rinya Nakamura	16 / 22	22 / 30	1 / 1	1

Rinya Nakamura

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5

Fernie Garcia

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4