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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Rinya Nakamura won · U-DEC R3
Elo1519
Elo1506

Rinya NakamuravsCarlos VeraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Saturday, February 17, 2024Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Rinya Nakamura won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Rinya Nakamura wins(91.8%)

Actual result: Rinya Nakamura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rinya Nakamura at -1450 American odds

+$7 profit

$107 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rinya Nakamura has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Rinya Nakamura has 75pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Rinya Nakamura (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rinya Nakamura
Red Corner
VS
Carlos Vera
Blue Corner
-1450
(94%)
Vegas Odds
+850
(11%)
1519
Elo
1506
31
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'6"
172.72 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rinya Nakamura
oldest →
W
KOvs Toshiomi Kazama · Feb 23
W
vs Fernie Garcia · Aug 23
L
vs Muin Gafurov · Jan 25
W
KOvs Nathan Fletcher · Aug 25
latest
Carlos Vera
oldest →
W
SUBvs Josias Musasa · Mar 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rinya NakamuraMetricCarlos Vera
3.27
Strikes / min
1.53
1.72
Strikes absorbed / min
2.79
63%
Strike defense
49%
2.58
TDs / 15 min
0.00
100%
Takedown defense
25%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.55Δ 2.81 — meaningful gap-1.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1530 vs 1500Strikes3.5 vs 0.8Takedowns3.7 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.60 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 0.0
Rinya NakamuraCarlos Vera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Rinya Nakamura(5 fights)Carlos Vera(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +12.5|Blue -12.5
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Grappler Score
Red -49.0|Blue +49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rinya NakamuraTargetCarlos Vera

By target zone

30
49% acc · 79%
Head
7
37% acc · 58%
6
86% acc · 16%
Body
1
50% acc · 8%
2
100% acc · 5%
Leg
4
100% acc · 33%

By position

7
78% acc · 18%
Distance
6
40% acc · 50%
1
100% acc · 3%
Clinch
1
50% acc · 8%
30
50% acc · 79%
Ground
5
63% acc · 42%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Rinya Nakamura rounds
0
even
0
Carlos Vera rounds
Round 1Rinya Nakamura edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control4:20
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Rinya Nakamura edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns2
Control4:34
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Rinya Nakamura edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control4:09
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
38 / 70
Sig Strikes
12 / 25
54.7%
Sig Str %
48%
73 / 114
Total Strikes
55 / 79
3 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
13:03
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Carlos Vera6 / 818 / 250 / 00
1Rinya Nakamura16 / 3124 / 411 / 10
2Carlos Vera2 / 615 / 210 / 00
2Rinya Nakamura12 / 1825 / 362 / 20
3Carlos Vera4 / 1122 / 330 / 00
3Rinya Nakamura10 / 2124 / 370 / 00

Rinya Nakamura

StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights5

Carlos Vera

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights2