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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Rinat Fakhretdinov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1540

Elo1511

Rinat FakhretdinovvsCarlos LealUFC Prediction Result

UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Saturday, October 26, 2024Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Rinat Fakhretdinov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRinat Fakhretdinov: WrestlervsCarlos Leal: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Rinat Fakhretdinov wins(69.9%)

Actual result: Rinat Fakhretdinov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rinat Fakhretdinov at -218 American odds

+$46 profit

$146 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rinat Fakhretdinov enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Rinat Fakhretdinov

Red Corner

Carlos Leal

Blue Corner

-218

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1540

Elo

1511

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rinat FakhretdinovW5 streak

oldest →

vs Andreas Michailidis · Jun 22

vs Bryan Battle · Dec 22

SUBvs Kevin Lee · Jul 23

vs Nicolas Dalby · Jun 24

KOvs Andreas Gustafsson · Sep 25

latest

Carlos Leal

oldest →

KOvs Alex Morono · Mar 25

KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 25

vs Chidi Njokuani · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rinat FakhretdinovMetricCarlos Leal

5.03

Strikes / min

8.75

3.61

Strikes absorbed / min

7.78

54%

Strike defense

48%

3.91

TDs / 15 min

0.43

91%

Takedown defense

90%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.42evenly matched on net striking+0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rinat FakhretdinovCarlos Leal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rinat Fakhretdinov(6 fights)Carlos Leal(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +28.7|Blue -28.7

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rinat FakhretdinovTargetCarlos Leal

By target zone

45% acc · 75%

Head

35% acc · 67%

58% acc · 14%

Body

80% acc · 15%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 18%

By position

49% acc · 88%

Distance

41% acc · 88%

52% acc · 12%

Clinch

87% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rinat Fakhretdinov rounds

even

Carlos Leal rounds

Round 1Rinat Fakhretdinov edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control1:57

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns1

Control0:53

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Rinat Fakhretdinov edged it

Sig. strikes52

Takedowns0

Control0:24

42Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

109 / 222

Sig Strikes

107 / 246

48%

Sig Str %

43.3%

119 / 236

Total Strikes

146 / 292

2 / 19

TDs

1 / 4

13%

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

3:14

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Carlos Leal	28 / 63	56 / 95	0 / 0
1	Rinat Fakhretdinov	24 / 53	28 / 59	1 / 7
2	Carlos Leal	37 / 86	44 / 94	0 / 1
2	Rinat Fakhretdinov	33 / 68	37 / 73	1 / 4
3	Carlos Leal	42 / 97	46 / 103	1 / 3
3	Rinat Fakhretdinov	52 / 101	54 / 104	0 / 8

Rinat Fakhretdinov

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6

Carlos Leal

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4