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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Riki Fukuda won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1351

Riki FukudavsSteve CantwellUFC Prediction Result

UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson · Saturday, February 25, 2012Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Riki Fukuda won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRiki Fukuda: WrestlervsSteve Cantwell: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Riki Fukuda wins(61.3%)

Actual result: Riki Fukuda wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Riki Fukuda at -310 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Riki Fukuda (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Riki Fukuda

Red Corner

Steve Cantwell

Blue Corner

-310

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1490

Elo

1351

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Riki Fukuda

oldest →

vs Nick Ring · Feb 11

DECvs Costas Philippou · Jul 12

vs Tom DeBlass · Nov 12

vs Brad Tavares · Mar 13

latest

Steve CantwellL2 streak

oldest →

vs Cyrille Diabate · Mar 11

vs Mike Massenzio · Oct 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Riki FukudaMetricSteve Cantwell

4.24

Strikes / min

3.63

3.71

Strikes absorbed / min

5.76

64%

Strike defense

55%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

0.65

70%

Takedown defense

80%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.53Δ 2.66 — meaningful gap-2.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Riki FukudaSteve Cantwell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Riki Fukuda(5 fights)Steve Cantwell(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +138.8|Blue -138.8

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -2.4|Blue +2.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +224.0|Blue -224.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Riki FukudaTargetSteve Cantwell

By target zone

45% acc · 69%

Head

26% acc · 62%

71% acc · 12%

Body

43% acc · 26%

74% acc · 19%

Leg

75% acc · 13%

By position

51% acc · 80%

Distance

26% acc · 70%

51% acc · 15%

Clinch

61% acc · 30%

50% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Riki Fukuda rounds

even

Steve Cantwell rounds

Round 1Riki Fukuda edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control1:39

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Riki Fukuda edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns1

Control0:51

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 3Riki Fukuda edged it

Sig. strikes56

Takedowns1

Control1:06

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

124 / 242

Sig Strikes

47 / 148

49.3%

Sig Str %

31%

187 / 310

Total Strikes

49 / 151

3 / 6

TDs

1 / 1

61%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

3:36

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Steve Cantwell	15 / 50	16 / 51	0 / 0	0
1	Riki Fukuda	21 / 48	51 / 83	1 / 3	0
2	Steve Cantwell	21 / 52	21 / 53	1 / 1	1
2	Riki Fukuda	47 / 88	73 / 114	1 / 2	0
3	Steve Cantwell	11 / 46	12 / 47	0 / 0	0
3	Riki Fukuda	56 / 106	63 / 113	1 / 1	0

Riki Fukuda

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights5

Steve Cantwell

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights3