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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Ricky Turcios won · S-DEC R3

Elo1466

Elo1440

Ricky TurciosvsKevin NatividadUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Saturday, November 19, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ricky Turcios won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRicky Turcios: Pressure fightervsKevin Natividad: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Ricky Turcios wins(65.0%)

Actual result: Ricky Turcios wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ricky Turcios at -195 American odds

+$51 profit

$151 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ricky Turcios enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Kevin Natividad has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ricky Turcios

Red Corner

Kevin Natividad

Blue Corner

-195

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1466

Elo

1440

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ricky TurciosL4 streak

oldest →

vs Brady Hiestand · Aug 21

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Jul 22

SUBvs Raul Rosas Jr. · Jun 24

vs Benardo Sopaj · Jan 25

SUBvs Alberto Montes · Mar 26

latest

Kevin NatividadL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Miles Johns · Oct 20

KOvs Danaa Batgerel · Apr 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ricky TurciosMetricKevin Natividad

4.68

Strikes / min

2.68

3.84

Strikes absorbed / min

4.29

51%

Strike defense

47%

0.85

TDs / 15 min

3.66

44%

Takedown defense

83%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.84Δ 2.45 — meaningful gap-1.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ricky TurciosKevin Natividad

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ricky Turcios(6 fights)Kevin Natividad(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +26.0|Blue -26.0

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -441.0|Blue +441.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ricky TurciosTargetKevin Natividad

By target zone

58% acc · 96%

Head

47% acc · 80%

100% acc · 1%

Body

71% acc · 12%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

75% acc · 7%

By position

44% acc · 41%

Distance

42% acc · 56%

45% acc · 7%

Clinch

56% acc · 12%

85% acc · 51%

Ground

76% acc · 32%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ricky Turcios rounds

even

Kevin Natividad rounds

Round 1Ricky Turcios edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control2:30

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:30Control

Round 2Kevin Natividad edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control1:26

17Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:20Control

Round 3Ricky Turcios edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control2:21

Knockdowns0

15Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:10Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 115

Sig Strikes

41 / 81

59%

Sig Str %

50%

170 / 224

Total Strikes

61 / 109

2 / 5

TDs

7 / 13

33.3%

TD %

55.3%

Sub Att

Rev

6:17

Ctrl Time

5:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kevin Natividad	9 / 19	11 / 22	2 / 3	0
1	Ricky Turcios	17 / 27	49 / 62	2 / 2	0
2	Kevin Natividad	17 / 29	32 / 49	3 / 5	0
2	Ricky Turcios	22 / 39	52 / 70	0 / 2	0
3	Kevin Natividad	15 / 33	18 / 38	2 / 5	0
3	Ricky Turcios	29 / 49	69 / 92	0 / 1	1

Ricky Turcios

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6

Kevin Natividad

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3