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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Ricky Turcios won · S-DEC R3

Elo1466

Elo1511

Ricky TurciosvsBrady HiestandUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · Saturday, August 28, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ricky Turcios won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRicky Turcios: Pressure fightervsBrady Hiestand: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Ricky Turcios wins(60.7%)

Actual result: Ricky Turcios wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ricky Turcios at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ricky Turcios enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Brady Hiestand enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Ricky Turcios

Red Corner

Brady Hiestand

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1466

Elo

1511

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ricky TurciosL3 streak

oldest →

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Jul 22

vs Kevin Natividad · Nov 22

SUBvs Raul Rosas Jr. · Jun 24

vs Benardo Sopaj · Jan 25

SUBvs Alberto Montes · Mar 26

latest

Brady HiestandW3 streak

oldest →

vs Fernie Garcia · Nov 22

KOvs Batgerel Danaa · Apr 23

SUBvs Garrett Armfield · Jun 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ricky TurciosMetricBrady Hiestand

4.68

Strikes / min

2.70

3.84

Strikes absorbed / min

3.75

51%

Strike defense

51%

0.85

TDs / 15 min

4.80

44%

Takedown defense

42%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.84Δ 1.89 — meaningful gap-1.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ricky TurciosBrady Hiestand

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ricky Turcios(6 fights)Brady Hiestand(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -45.0|Blue +45.0

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ricky TurciosTargetBrady Hiestand

By target zone

55% acc · 83%

Head

48% acc · 89%

78% acc · 14%

Body

67% acc · 9%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

51% acc · 67%

Distance

44% acc · 79%

81% acc · 22%

Clinch

80% acc · 12%

85% acc · 11%

Ground

86% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ricky Turcios rounds

even

Brady Hiestand rounds

Round 1Ricky Turcios edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns1

Control0:15

24Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:14Control

Round 2Brady Hiestand edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:45

15Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:43Control

Round 3Ricky Turcios edged it

Sig. strikes50

Takedowns0

Control1:32

Knockdowns1

27Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:43Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

100 / 171

Sig Strikes

66 / 134

56%

Sig Str %

49.3%

201 / 281

Total Strikes

82 / 152

2 / 4

TDs

6 / 11

50%

TD %

63.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:32

Ctrl Time

7:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Brady Hiestand	24 / 43	35 / 56	2 / 4
1	Ricky Turcios	35 / 55	72 / 98	1 / 1
2	Brady Hiestand	15 / 31	16 / 32	2 / 2
2	Ricky Turcios	15 / 33	42 / 60	1 / 2
3	Brady Hiestand	27 / 60	31 / 64	2 / 5
3	Ricky Turcios	50 / 83	87 / 123	0 / 1

Ricky Turcios

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6

Brady Hiestand

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4