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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Benardo Sopaj won · U-DEC R3

Elo1466

Elo1529

Ricky TurciosvsBenardo SopajUFC Prediction Result

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Saturday, January 18, 2025Inglewood, California, USA

Official fight result

Benardo Sopaj won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRicky Turcios: Pressure fightervsBenardo Sopaj: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Benardo Sopaj wins(62.3%)

Actual result: Benardo Sopaj wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Benardo Sopaj at -295 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Benardo Sopaj threatens submissions; Ricky Turcios has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Benardo Sopaj has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Ricky Turcios has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ricky Turcios

Red Corner

Benardo Sopaj

Blue Corner

+240

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-295

(75%)

1466

Elo

1529

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ricky TurciosL2 streak

oldest →

vs Brady Hiestand · Aug 21

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Jul 22

vs Kevin Natividad · Nov 22

SUBvs Raul Rosas Jr. · Jun 24

SUBvs Alberto Montes · Mar 26

latest

Benardo Sopaj

oldest →

KOvs Vinicius Oliveira · Mar 24

SUBvs Timmy Cuamba · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ricky TurciosMetricBenardo Sopaj

4.68

Strikes / min

4.24

3.84

Strikes absorbed / min

4.88

51%

Strike defense

49%

0.85

TDs / 15 min

2.53

44%

Takedown defense

76%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.84Δ 1.48 — meaningful gap-0.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ricky TurciosBenardo Sopaj

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ricky Turcios(6 fights)Benardo Sopaj(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -62.4|Blue +62.4

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ricky TurciosTargetBenardo Sopaj

By target zone

35% acc · 38%

Head

55% acc · 79%

75% acc · 31%

Body

73% acc · 10%

92% acc · 31%

Leg

82% acc · 11%

By position

50% acc · 77%

Distance

48% acc · 59%

82% acc · 23%

Clinch

80% acc · 20%

0% acc

Ground

85% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ricky Turcios rounds

even

Benardo Sopaj rounds

Round 1Ricky Turcios edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:53

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:48Control

Round 2Ricky Turcios edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:44

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 3Benardo Sopaj edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control0:19

Knockdowns0

38Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:27Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

78 / 144

Sig Strikes

81 / 139

53.3%

Sig Str %

56.7%

113 / 187

Total Strikes

97 / 155

1 / 9

TDs

2 / 3

11%

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

1:56

Ctrl Time

2:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Benardo Sopaj	18 / 35	20 / 37	0 / 0
1	Ricky Turcios	25 / 44	45 / 64	0 / 3
2	Benardo Sopaj	25 / 48	29 / 52	1 / 2
2	Ricky Turcios	30 / 52	42 / 68	0 / 3
3	Benardo Sopaj	38 / 56	48 / 66	1 / 1
3	Ricky Turcios	23 / 48	26 / 55	1 / 3

Ricky Turcios

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6

Benardo Sopaj

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights2