← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Alberto Montes won · SUB R2

Elo1466

Elo1492

Ricky TurciosvsAlberto MontesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · Saturday, March 7, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alberto Montes won

SUB · Round 2 · 0:40

Style matchupRicky Turcios: Pressure fightervsAlberto Montes: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Alberto Montes wins(75.7%)

Actual result: Alberto Montes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alberto Montes at -188 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alberto Montes threatens submissions; Ricky Turcios has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Alberto Montes has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ricky Turcios

Red Corner

Alberto Montes

Blue Corner

+158

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-188

(65%)

1466

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ricky TurciosL2 streak

oldest →

vs Brady Hiestand · Aug 21

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Jul 22

vs Kevin Natividad · Nov 22

SUBvs Raul Rosas Jr. · Jun 24

vs Benardo Sopaj · Jan 25

latest

Alberto Montes

oldest →

KOvs Tommy McMillen · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ricky TurciosMetricAlberto Montes

4.68

Strikes / min

5.26

3.84

Strikes absorbed / min

4.44

51%

Strike defense

60%

0.85

TDs / 15 min

0.00

44%

Takedown defense

77%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

6.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.84evenly matched on net striking+0.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ricky TurciosAlberto Montes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ricky Turcios(6 fights)Alberto Montes(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -25.6|Blue +25.6

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ricky TurciosTargetAlberto Montes

By target zone

27% acc · 64%

Head

45% acc · 59%

75% acc · 14%

Body

77% acc · 31%

100% acc · 23%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

34% acc · 91%

Distance

50% acc · 81%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 19%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ricky Turcios rounds

even

Alberto Montes rounds

Round 1Alberto Montes edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control1:54

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Alberto Montes edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 60

Sig Strikes

32 / 58

38.5%

Sig Str %

54.5%

36 / 74

Total Strikes

39 / 65

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:54

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alberto Montes	26 / 47	33 / 54	0 / 0	0
1	Ricky Turcios	19 / 53	33 / 67	0 / 2	0
2	Alberto Montes	6 / 11	6 / 11	0 / 0	1
2	Ricky Turcios	3 / 7	3 / 7	0 / 1	0

Ricky Turcios

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6

Alberto Montes

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights2