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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Vinicius Oliveira won · U-DEC R3

Elo1500

Elo1538

Ricky SimonvsVinicius OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Saturday, June 29, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Vinicius Oliveira won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRicky Simon: WrestlervsVinicius Oliveira: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Vinicius Oliveira wins(72.2%)

Actual result: Vinicius Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Vinicius Oliveira (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Ricky Simon

Red Corner

Vinicius Oliveira

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1500

Elo

1538

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ricky Simon

oldest →

vs Mario Bautista · Jan 24

KOvs Javid Basharat · Feb 25

vs Cameron Smotherman · Jun 25

vs Raoni Barcelos · Nov 25

vs Adrian Yanez · Mar 26

latest

Vinicius Oliveira

oldest →

KOvs Benardo Sopaj · Mar 24

vs Said Nurmagomedov · Feb 25

vs Kyler Phillips · Jul 25

SUBvs Mario Bautista · Feb 26

KOvs Andre Fili · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ricky SimonMetricVinicius Oliveira

3.03

Strikes / min

4.73

3.90

Strikes absorbed / min

2.70

61%

Strike defense

57%

4.49

TDs / 15 min

1.45

76%

Takedown defense

70%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.87Δ 2.90 — meaningful gap+2.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ricky SimonVinicius Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ricky Simon(10 fights)Vinicius Oliveira(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -38.1|Blue +38.1

Recent Form

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ricky SimonTargetVinicius Oliveira

By target zone

34% acc · 62%

Head

29% acc · 55%

75% acc · 29%

Body

83% acc · 21%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

79% acc · 24%

By position

43% acc · 95%

Distance

40% acc · 98%

67% acc · 5%

Clinch

50% acc · 1%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ricky Simon rounds

even

Vinicius Oliveira rounds

Round 1Vinicius Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:06

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Vinicius Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control0:22

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Vinicius Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:03

40Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 96

Sig Strikes

96 / 237

43.7%

Sig Str %

39.7%

44 / 98

Total Strikes

96 / 237

2 / 11

TDs

1 / 1

11%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:31

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Vinicius Oliveira	28 / 74	28 / 74	0 / 0
1	Ricky Simon	14 / 26	15 / 27	0 / 2
2	Vinicius Oliveira	28 / 77	28 / 77	0 / 0
2	Ricky Simon	17 / 39	18 / 40	2 / 6
3	Vinicius Oliveira	40 / 86	40 / 86	1 / 1
3	Ricky Simon	11 / 31	11 / 31	0 / 3

Ricky Simon

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights17

Vinicius Oliveira

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7