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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raoni Barcelos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1500

Elo1550

Ricky SimonvsRaoni BarcelosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Saturday, November 8, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Raoni Barcelos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRicky Simon: WrestlervsRaoni Barcelos: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Raoni Barcelos wins(55.3%)

Actual result: Raoni Barcelos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raoni Barcelos at +158 American odds

+$158 profit

$258 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raoni Barcelos enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Ricky Simon

Red Corner

Raoni Barcelos

Blue Corner

-188

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+158

(39%)

1500

Elo

1550

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ricky Simon

oldest →

vs Mario Bautista · Jan 24

vs Vinicius Oliveira · Jun 24

KOvs Javid Basharat · Feb 25

vs Cameron Smotherman · Jun 25

vs Adrian Yanez · Mar 26

latest

Raoni BarcelosW4 streak

oldest →

vs Kyler Phillips · Aug 23

SUBvs Cristian Quinonez · Feb 24

vs Payton Talbott · Jan 25

vs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 25

DECvs Montel Jackson · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ricky SimonMetricRaoni Barcelos

3.03

Strikes / min

4.65

3.90

Strikes absorbed / min

4.24

61%

Strike defense

60%

4.49

TDs / 15 min

2.51

76%

Takedown defense

87%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.87Δ 1.28 — meaningful gap+0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ricky SimonRaoni Barcelos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ricky Simon(10 fights)Raoni Barcelos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ricky SimonTargetRaoni Barcelos

By target zone

35% acc · 85%

Head

35% acc · 65%

60% acc · 13%

Body

79% acc · 23%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

77% acc · 12%

By position

34% acc · 87%

Distance

43% acc · 98%

75% acc · 4%

Clinch

67% acc · 2%

86% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ricky Simon rounds

even

Raoni Barcelos rounds

Round 1Ricky Simon edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:45

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Raoni Barcelos edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:40

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Raoni Barcelos edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

67 / 181

Sig Strikes

82 / 187

37.3%

Sig Str %

44.3%

77 / 191

Total Strikes

86 / 194

0 / 6

TDs

1 / 8

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

1:25

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Raoni Barcelos	16 / 33	19 / 39	1 / 3
1	Ricky Simon	24 / 52	34 / 62	0 / 2
2	Raoni Barcelos	32 / 71	33 / 72	0 / 2
2	Ricky Simon	16 / 47	16 / 47	0 / 3
3	Raoni Barcelos	34 / 83	34 / 83	0 / 3
3	Ricky Simon	27 / 82	27 / 82	0 / 1

Ricky Simon

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights17

Raoni Barcelos

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15