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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Mario Bautista won · U-DEC R3

Elo1500

Elo1552

Ricky SimonvsMario BautistaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Saturday, January 13, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mario Bautista won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRicky Simon: WrestlervsMario Bautista: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Mario Bautista wins(70.7%)

Actual result: Mario Bautista wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mario Bautista at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ricky Simon has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mario Bautista (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Ricky Simon

Red Corner

Mario Bautista

Blue Corner

-180

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1500

Elo

1552

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ricky Simon

oldest →

vs Vinicius Oliveira · Jun 24

KOvs Javid Basharat · Feb 25

vs Cameron Smotherman · Jun 25

vs Raoni Barcelos · Nov 25

vs Adrian Yanez · Mar 26

latest

Mario BautistaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Jose Aldo · Oct 24

vs Patchy Mix · Jun 25

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25

SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26

DECvs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ricky SimonMetricMario Bautista

3.03

Strikes / min

5.30

3.90

Strikes absorbed / min

3.98

61%

Strike defense

54%

4.49

TDs / 15 min

1.91

76%

Takedown defense

55%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.87Δ 2.19 — meaningful gap+1.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ricky SimonMario Bautista

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ricky Simon(10 fights)Mario Bautista(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -51.5|Blue +51.5

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ricky SimonTargetMario Bautista

By target zone

35% acc · 73%

Head

35% acc · 68%

100% acc · 9%

Body

74% acc · 28%

89% acc · 18%

Leg

56% acc · 4%

By position

42% acc · 98%

Distance

110

41% acc · 98%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

67% acc · 2%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ricky Simon rounds

even

Mario Bautista rounds

Round 1Mario Bautista edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:31

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mario Bautista edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:28

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Mario Bautista edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control1:01

56Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 108

Sig Strikes

112 / 270

44.3%

Sig Str %

39.7%

52 / 115

Total Strikes

118 / 276

2 / 13

TDs

0 / 3

13.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:00

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mario Bautista	18 / 53	18 / 53	0 / 0
1	Ricky Simon	9 / 16	13 / 20	1 / 4
2	Mario Bautista	38 / 90	38 / 90	0 / 1
2	Ricky Simon	21 / 48	24 / 51	0 / 3
3	Mario Bautista	56 / 127	62 / 133	0 / 2
3	Ricky Simon	15 / 44	15 / 44	1 / 6

Ricky Simon

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights17

Mario Bautista

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15