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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Ricky Simon won · U-DEC R3

Elo1500

Elo1452

Ricky SimonvsCameron SmothermanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · Saturday, June 14, 2025Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Ricky Simon won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRicky Simon: WrestlervsCameron Smotherman: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Ricky Simon wins(80.0%)

Actual result: Ricky Simon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ricky Simon at -390 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Ricky Simon

Red Corner

Cameron Smotherman

Blue Corner

-390

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+310

(24%)

1500

Elo

1452

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ricky Simon

oldest →

vs Mario Bautista · Jan 24

vs Vinicius Oliveira · Jun 24

KOvs Javid Basharat · Feb 25

vs Raoni Barcelos · Nov 25

vs Adrian Yanez · Mar 26

latest

Cameron SmothermanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Hadley · Oct 24

vs Serhiy Sidey · May 25

KOvs Kai Asakura · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ricky SimonMetricCameron Smotherman

3.03

Strikes / min

4.07

3.90

Strikes absorbed / min

3.52

61%

Strike defense

58%

4.49

TDs / 15 min

0.00

76%

Takedown defense

62%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.87Δ 1.42 — meaningful gap+0.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ricky SimonCameron Smotherman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ricky Simon(10 fights)Cameron Smotherman(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +48.6|Blue -48.6

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ricky SimonTargetCameron Smotherman

By target zone

35% acc · 65%

Head

26% acc · 79%

100% acc · 12%

Body

56% acc · 17%

100% acc · 24%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

45% acc · 82%

Distance

27% acc · 86%

67% acc · 12%

Clinch

80% acc · 14%

33% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ricky Simon rounds

even

Cameron Smotherman rounds

Round 1Ricky Simon edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control4:27

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ricky Simon edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control2:56

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:50

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 74

Sig Strikes

29 / 99

46.7%

Sig Str %

25%

50 / 94

Total Strikes

33 / 104

3 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

54.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:13

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Cameron Smotherman	1 / 6	3 / 8	0 / 0
1	Ricky Simon	7 / 13	19 / 27	1 / 2
2	Cameron Smotherman	11 / 37	12 / 38	0 / 0
2	Ricky Simon	16 / 31	20 / 37	1 / 1
3	Cameron Smotherman	17 / 56	18 / 58	0 / 0
3	Ricky Simon	11 / 30	11 / 30	1 / 7

Ricky Simon

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights17

Cameron Smotherman

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4