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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Ricky Simon won · U-DEC

Elo1500

Elo1489

Ricky SimonvsBrian KelleherUFC Prediction Result

UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns · Saturday, February 13, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ricky Simon won

U-DEC

Style matchupRicky Simon: WrestlervsBrian Kelleher: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Ricky Simon wins(83.6%)

Actual result: Ricky Simon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ricky Simon at -253 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brian Kelleher enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Ricky Simon has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Brian Kelleher (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Ricky Simon

Red Corner

Brian Kelleher

Blue Corner

-253

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1500

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ricky Simon

oldest →

vs Vinicius Oliveira · Jun 24

KOvs Javid Basharat · Feb 25

vs Cameron Smotherman · Jun 25

vs Raoni Barcelos · Nov 25

vs Adrian Yanez · Mar 26

latest

Brian KelleherL4 streak

oldest →

vs Kevin Croom · Jan 22

SUBvs Umar Nurmagomedov · Mar 22

SUBvs Mario Bautista · Jun 22

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 23

SUBvs Cody Gibson · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ricky SimonMetricBrian Kelleher

3.03

Strikes / min

3.31

3.90

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

61%

Strike defense

54%

4.49

TDs / 15 min

1.68

76%

Takedown defense

60%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.87evenly matched on net striking-1.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ricky SimonBrian Kelleher

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ricky Simon(10 fights)Brian Kelleher(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +11.5|Blue -11.5

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -137.0|Blue +137.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ricky SimonTargetBrian Kelleher

By target zone

34% acc · 56%

Head

13% acc · 37%

75% acc · 7%

Body

50% acc · 21%

81% acc · 38%

Leg

89% acc · 42%

By position

39% acc · 64%

Distance

25% acc · 95%

67% acc · 13%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

67% acc · 22%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ricky Simon rounds

even

Brian Kelleher rounds

Round 1Ricky Simon edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns3

Control3:16

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Ricky Simon edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns2

Control1:27

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Ricky Simon edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control3:31

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 98

Sig Strikes

19 / 73

47.3%

Sig Str %

23.3%

72 / 136

Total Strikes

25 / 83

6 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

83.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:14

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brian Kelleher	4 / 23	5 / 24	0 / 0	0
1	Ricky Simon	9 / 28	13 / 38	3 / 6	0
2	Brian Kelleher	12 / 34	17 / 40	0 / 0	0
2	Ricky Simon	22 / 49	32 / 60	2 / 2	0
3	Brian Kelleher	3 / 16	3 / 19	0 / 0	0
3	Ricky Simon	14 / 21	27 / 38	1 / 1	1

Ricky Simon

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights17

Brian Kelleher

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17