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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Rick Story won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1491
Rick Story
Elo1353

Rick StoryvsQuinn MulhernUFC Prediction Result

UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · Saturday, March 16, 2013Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Rick Story won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:05

Model Prediction: Rick Story wins(68.5%)

Actual result: Rick Story wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rick Story at -370 American odds

+$27 profit

$127 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rick Story has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Rick Story has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Rick Story (53.5%).
  • Quinn Mulhern has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rick Story
Red Corner
VS
Quinn Mulhern
Blue Corner
-370
(79%)
Vegas Odds
+330
(23%)
1491
Elo
1353
41
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'3"
180.34 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rick Story
oldest →
L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Mar 14
W
SUBvs Leonardo Mafra · Jul 14
W
vs Gunnar Nelson · Oct 14
W
vs Tarec Saffiedine · May 16
L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 16
latest
Quinn Mulhern
oldest →
L
vs Katsunori Kikuno · Jan 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rick StoryMetricQuinn Mulhern
3.80
Strikes / min
1.48
2.17
Strikes absorbed / min
2.09
62%
Strike defense
51%
2.53
TDs / 15 min
1.36
63%
Takedown defense
33%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.63Δ 2.24 — meaningful gap-0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1524 vs 1500Strikes40.1 vs —Takedowns2.6 vs —Sub Atts1.18 vs —Form-0.3 vs 0.0
Rick StoryQuinn Mulhern

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Rick Story(10 fights)Quinn Mulhern(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +137.8|Blue -137.8
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red -47.5|Blue +47.5
Grappler Score
Red -49.2|Blue +49.2
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rick StoryTargetQuinn Mulhern

By target zone

10
29% acc · 50%
Head
8
19% acc · 89%
7
78% acc · 35%
Body
1
13% acc · 11%
3
60% acc · 15%
Leg
0

By position

15
37% acc · 75%
Distance
9
18% acc · 100%
1
50% acc · 5%
Clinch
0
4
67% acc · 20%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Rick Story rounds
0
even
0
Quinn Mulhern rounds
Round 1Rick Story edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns1
Control0:07
Knockdowns1
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
20 / 49
Sig Strikes
9 / 50
40%
Sig Str %
18%
26 / 55
Total Strikes
9 / 51
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 1
100%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:07
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Quinn Mulhern9 / 509 / 510 / 10
1Rick Story20 / 4926 / 551 / 10

Rick Story

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights16

Quinn Mulhern

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach—
Fights2