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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Martin Kampmann won · S-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1352

Rick StoryvsMartin KampmannUFC Prediction Result

UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson · Saturday, November 19, 2011San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Martin Kampmann won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRick Story: WrestlervsMartin Kampmann: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Rick Story wins(72.0%)

Actual result: Martin Kampmann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rick Story at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Martin Kampmann has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Rick Story (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rick Story

Red Corner

Martin Kampmann

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1491

Elo

1352

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rick Story

oldest →

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Mar 14

SUBvs Leonardo Mafra · Jul 14

vs Gunnar Nelson · Oct 14

vs Tarec Saffiedine · May 16

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 16

latest

Martin KampmannL2 streak

oldest →

vs Diego Sanchez · Mar 11

SUBvs Thiago Alves · Mar 12

KOvs Jake Ellenberger · Jun 12

KOvs Johny Hendricks · Nov 12

KOvs Carlos Condit · Aug 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rick StoryMetricMartin Kampmann

3.80

Strikes / min

3.22

2.17

Strikes absorbed / min

3.28

62%

Strike defense

62%

2.53

TDs / 15 min

1.86

63%

Takedown defense

78%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

2.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.63Δ 1.69 — meaningful gap-0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rick StoryMartin Kampmann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rick Story(10 fights)Martin Kampmann(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +138.2|Blue -138.2

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -115.0|Blue +115.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rick StoryTargetMartin Kampmann

By target zone

28% acc · 64%

Head

24% acc · 89%

67% acc · 36%

Body

57% acc · 11%

Leg

0% acc

By position

32% acc · 77%

Distance

23% acc · 76%

56% acc · 23%

Clinch

31% acc · 13%

Ground

100% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rick Story rounds

even

Martin Kampmann rounds

Round 1Rick Story edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:08

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Martin Kampmann edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:02

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:56Control

Round 3Martin Kampmann edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control0:26

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:59Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 170

Sig Strikes

38 / 147

35.7%

Sig Str %

28.3%

73 / 183

Total Strikes

55 / 165

1 / 3

TDs

3 / 9

25%

TD %

39%

Sub Att

Rev

0:36

Ctrl Time

4:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Martin Kampmann	17 / 67	17 / 67	0 / 0	0
1	Rick Story	34 / 91	37 / 94	0 / 1	0
2	Martin Kampmann	11 / 56	24 / 70	1 / 2	0
2	Rick Story	13 / 47	14 / 48	0 / 0	0
3	Martin Kampmann	10 / 24	14 / 28	2 / 7	1
3	Rick Story	14 / 32	22 / 41	1 / 2	0

Rick Story

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights16

Martin Kampmann

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8