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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Rick Story won · SUB R2

Elo1491

Elo1490

Rick StoryvsLeonardo MafraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller · Wednesday, July 16, 2014Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Rick Story won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:12

Style matchupRick Story: WrestlervsLeonardo Mafra: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Rick Story wins(67.3%)

Actual result: Rick Story wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rick Story at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rick Story has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Rick Story (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rick Story

Red Corner

Leonardo Mafra

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+270

(27%)

1491

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rick Story

oldest →

vs Brian Ebersole · Nov 13

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Mar 14

vs Gunnar Nelson · Oct 14

vs Tarec Saffiedine · May 16

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 16

latest

Leonardo Mafra

oldest →

KOvs Thiago Perpetuo · Jun 12

vs Cain Carrizosa · Mar 15

KOvs Stevie Ray · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rick StoryMetricLeonardo Mafra

3.80

Strikes / min

4.55

2.17

Strikes absorbed / min

4.38

62%

Strike defense

43%

2.53

TDs / 15 min

2.12

63%

Takedown defense

69%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.63Δ 1.46 — meaningful gap+0.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rick StoryLeonardo Mafra

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rick Story(10 fights)Leonardo Mafra(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +2.5|Blue -2.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Layoff

Red -630.0|Blue +630.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rick StoryTargetLeonardo Mafra

By target zone

59% acc · 92%

Head

38% acc · 45%

100% acc · 8%

Body

83% acc · 45%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

44% acc · 29%

Distance

47% acc · 73%

Clinch

100% acc · 18%

74% acc · 71%

Ground

100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rick Story rounds

even

Leonardo Mafra rounds

Round 1Rick Story edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns2

Control4:16

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Rick Story edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control1:29

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 39

Sig Strikes

11 / 20

61%

Sig Str %

56.5%

53 / 70

Total Strikes

21 / 32

3 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:45

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Leonardo Mafra	7 / 9	15 / 19	0 / 0	0
1	Rick Story	18 / 29	44 / 57	2 / 2	0
2	Leonardo Mafra	4 / 11	6 / 13	0 / 0	0
2	Rick Story	6 / 10	9 / 13	1 / 2	1

Rick Story

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights16

Leonardo Mafra

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4