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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Donald Cerrone won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Elo1429

Rick StoryvsDonald CerroneUFC Prediction Result

UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · Saturday, August 20, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Donald Cerrone won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:02

Style matchupRick Story: WrestlervsDonald Cerrone: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(51.8%)

Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Donald Cerrone at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rick Story enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Rick Story (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rick Story

Red Corner

Donald Cerrone

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1491

Elo

1429

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'1"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rick StoryW3 streak

oldest →

vs Brian Ebersole · Nov 13

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Mar 14

SUBvs Leonardo Mafra · Jul 14

vs Gunnar Nelson · Oct 14

vs Tarec Saffiedine · May 16

latest

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rick StoryMetricDonald Cerrone

3.80

Strikes / min

4.41

2.17

Strikes absorbed / min

4.48

62%

Strike defense

53%

2.53

TDs / 15 min

1.16

63%

Takedown defense

73%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.63Δ 1.70 — meaningful gap-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rick StoryDonald Cerrone

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rick Story(10 fights)Donald Cerrone(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +61.9|Blue -61.9

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +20.0|Blue -20.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rick StoryTargetDonald Cerrone

By target zone

17% acc · 35%

Head

46% acc · 49%

50% acc · 29%

Body

92% acc · 27%

100% acc · 35%

Leg

92% acc · 24%

By position

28% acc · 76%

Distance

59% acc · 82%

100% acc · 12%

Clinch

75% acc · 7%

67% acc · 12%

Ground

83% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rick Story rounds

even

Donald Cerrone rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control1:42

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 2Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 51

Sig Strikes

45 / 73

27%

Sig Str %

60.5%

19 / 54

Total Strikes

48 / 76

1 / 5

TDs

1 / 1

16.5%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:42

Ctrl Time

0:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Donald Cerrone	18 / 33	19 / 34	1 / 1	1
1	Rick Story	15 / 37	17 / 40	1 / 3	0
2	Donald Cerrone	27 / 40	29 / 42	0 / 0	0
2	Rick Story	2 / 14	2 / 14	0 / 2	0

Rick Story

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights16

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37