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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Rick Story won · U-DEC R3
Elo1491
Rick Story
Elo1352

Rick StoryvsBrock JardineUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · Friday, June 22, 2012Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Rick Story won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Rick Story wins(71.8%)

Actual result: Rick Story wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rick Story at -370 American odds

+$27 profit

$127 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rick Story has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Rick Story (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rick Story
Red Corner
VS
Brock Jardine
Blue Corner
-370
(79%)
Vegas Odds
+330
(23%)
1491
Elo
1352
41
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rick Story
oldest →
L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Mar 14
W
SUBvs Leonardo Mafra · Jul 14
W
vs Gunnar Nelson · Oct 14
W
vs Tarec Saffiedine · May 16
L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 16
latest
Brock Jardine
oldest →
L
SUBvs Kenny Robertson · Feb 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rick StoryMetricBrock Jardine
3.80
Strikes / min
1.06
2.17
Strikes absorbed / min
3.34
62%
Strike defense
56%
2.53
TDs / 15 min
0.00
63%
Takedown defense
14%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.63Δ 3.91 — meaningful gap-2.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1527 vs 1500Strikes43.0 vs —Takedowns2.7 vs —Sub Atts1.44 vs —Form-0.1 vs 0.0
Rick StoryBrock Jardine

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Rick Story(10 fights)Brock Jardine(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +138.6|Blue -138.6
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red -47.6|Blue +47.6
Grappler Score
Red -49.1|Blue +49.1
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rick StoryTargetBrock Jardine

By target zone

13
16% acc · 25%
Head
11
23% acc · 61%
27
77% acc · 53%
Body
6
50% acc · 33%
11
100% acc · 22%
Leg
1
100% acc · 6%

By position

27
28% acc · 53%
Distance
18
30% acc · 100%
3
100% acc · 6%
Clinch
0
21
84% acc · 41%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Rick Story rounds
0
even
0
Brock Jardine rounds
Round 1Rick Story edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control1:26
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Rick Story edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns2
Control2:26
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 3Rick Story edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns2
Control1:23
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:44Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
51 / 125
Sig Strikes
18 / 60
40%
Sig Str %
28.7%
67 / 142
Total Strikes
21 / 63
5 / 6
TDs
0 / 2
88.7%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
5:15
Ctrl Time
0:46

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Brock Jardine6 / 236 / 230 / 10
1Rick Story13 / 3919 / 451 / 10
2Brock Jardine3 / 145 / 160 / 00
2Rick Story14 / 3319 / 382 / 30
3Brock Jardine9 / 2310 / 240 / 10
3Rick Story24 / 5329 / 592 / 20

Rick Story

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights16

Brock Jardine

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach—
Fights2