Flyweight

3 Rounds

Louis Smolka won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1356

Elo1425

Richie VaculikvsLouis SmolkaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bisping · Friday, November 7, 2014Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Louis Smolka won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:18

Style matchupRichie Vaculik: WrestlervsLouis Smolka: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Louis Smolka wins(57.0%)

Actual result: Louis Smolka wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Louis Smolka at -340 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Louis Smolka is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Richie Vaculik has lost 67% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Richie Vaculik

Red Corner

Louis Smolka

Blue Corner

+310

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-340

(77%)

1356

Elo

1425

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Richie Vaculik

oldest →

KOvs Justin Scoggins · Dec 13

DECvs Roldan Sangcha-an · Jun 14

vs Danny Martinez · Nov 15

latest

Louis SmolkaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19

SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20

KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20

KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21

KOvs Davey Grant · May 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Richie VaculikMetricLouis Smolka

3.69

Strikes / min

4.67

4.09

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

57%

Strike defense

53%

3.00

TDs / 15 min

1.69

31%

Takedown defense

32%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.40evenly matched on net striking+0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Richie VaculikLouis Smolka

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Richie Vaculik(4 fights)Louis Smolka(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -69.2|Blue +69.2

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -2.7|Blue +2.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Richie VaculikTargetLouis Smolka

By target zone

46% acc · 70%

Head

37% acc · 64%

73% acc · 22%

Body

87% acc · 19%

86% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 16%

By position

49% acc · 81%

Distance

46% acc · 97%

71% acc · 14%

Clinch

50% acc · 1%

80% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Richie Vaculik rounds

even

Louis Smolka rounds

Round 1Richie Vaculik edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns1

Control0:35

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 2Louis Smolka edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control0:30

36Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:41Control

Round 3Louis Smolka edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 142

Sig Strikes

67 / 143

52.3%

Sig Str %

36.7%

84 / 153

Total Strikes

71 / 147

2 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:05

Ctrl Time

1:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Louis Smolka	30 / 71	30 / 71	0 / 1	0
1	Richie Vaculik	42 / 72	46 / 76	1 / 1	0
2	Louis Smolka	36 / 64	40 / 68	1 / 1	0
2	Richie Vaculik	27 / 61	29 / 64	1 / 1	1
3	Louis Smolka	1 / 8	1 / 8	0 / 0	0
3	Richie Vaculik	5 / 9	9 / 13	0 / 0	0

Richie Vaculik

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4

Louis Smolka

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17