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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Justin Scoggins won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1356

Elo1366

Richie VaculikvsJustin ScogginsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot · Friday, December 6, 2013Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

Official fight result

Justin Scoggins won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:43

Style matchupRichie Vaculik: WrestlervsJustin Scoggins: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Richie Vaculik wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Justin Scoggins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Richie Vaculik at +310 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Scoggins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Justin Scoggins has 51pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Justin Scoggins (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Richie Vaculik

Red Corner

Justin Scoggins

Blue Corner

+310

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-340

(77%)

1356

Elo

1366

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Richie VaculikL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Roldan Sangcha-an · Jun 14

KOvs Louis Smolka · Nov 14

vs Danny Martinez · Nov 15

latest

Justin ScogginsL3 streak

oldest →

DECvs Joshua Sampo · May 15

vs Ray Borg · Feb 16

SUBvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 16

SUBvs Ulka Sasaki · Jun 17

vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Richie VaculikMetricJustin Scoggins

3.69

Strikes / min

3.56

4.09

Strikes absorbed / min

2.16

57%

Strike defense

55%

3.00

TDs / 15 min

3.42

31%

Takedown defense

82%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.40Δ 1.80 — meaningful gap+1.40

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Richie Vaculik(4 fights)Justin Scoggins(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.7|Blue +10.7

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Richie VaculikTargetJustin Scoggins

By target zone

20% acc · 50%

Head

71% acc · 81%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 19%

100% acc · 50%

Leg

0% acc

By position

29% acc · 100%

Distance

56% acc · 19%

Clinch

60% acc · 11%

Ground

83% acc · 70%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Richie Vaculik rounds

even

Justin Scoggins rounds

Round 1Justin Scoggins edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 7

Sig Strikes

27 / 37

28%

Sig Str %

72%

19 / 24

Total Strikes

47 / 59

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 3

—

TD %

66%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

4:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Justin Scoggins	27 / 37	47 / 59	2 / 3	0
1	Richie Vaculik	2 / 7	19 / 24	0 / 0	0

Richie Vaculik

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4

Justin Scoggins

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9