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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Danny Martinez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1356

Elo1490

Richie VaculikvsDanny MartinezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm · Saturday, November 14, 2015Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Danny Martinez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRichie Vaculik: WrestlervsDanny Martinez: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Richie Vaculik wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Danny Martinez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Richie Vaculik at -135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Danny Martinez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Richie Vaculik

Red Corner

Danny Martinez

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1356

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Richie Vaculik

oldest →

KOvs Justin Scoggins · Dec 13

DECvs Roldan Sangcha-an · Jun 14

KOvs Louis Smolka · Nov 14

latest

Danny MartinezL3 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Cariaso · Feb 14

vs Scott Jorgensen · Jun 14

vs Sirwan Kakai · Jun 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Richie VaculikMetricDanny Martinez

3.69

Strikes / min

2.73

4.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.77

57%

Strike defense

63%

3.00

TDs / 15 min

3.00

31%

Takedown defense

36%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.40evenly matched on net striking-1.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Richie VaculikDanny Martinez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Richie Vaculik(4 fights)Danny Martinez(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -134.8|Blue +134.8

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +232.0|Blue -232.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Richie VaculikTargetDanny Martinez

By target zone

32% acc · 67%

Head

26% acc · 70%

55% acc · 10%

Body

64% acc · 30%

100% acc · 24%

Leg

By position

37% acc · 86%

Distance

27% acc · 76%

67% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

100% acc · 8%

Ground

67% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Richie Vaculik rounds

even

Danny Martinez rounds

Round 1Danny Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:25

12Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:31Control

Round 2Danny Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control0:07

34Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:48Control

Round 3Danny Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:13

8Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

3:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 156

Sig Strikes

54 / 171

39.7%

Sig Str %

28.3%

82 / 176

Total Strikes

90 / 213

3 / 3

TDs

9 / 12

100%

TD %

77.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:45

Ctrl Time

7:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Danny Martinez	12 / 53	30 / 71	3 / 3
1	Richie Vaculik	20 / 51	28 / 59	1 / 1
2	Danny Martinez	34 / 84	36 / 86	2 / 3
2	Richie Vaculik	28 / 65	32 / 70	1 / 1
3	Danny Martinez	8 / 34	24 / 56	4 / 6
3	Richie Vaculik	15 / 40	22 / 47	1 / 1

Richie Vaculik

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4

Danny Martinez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4