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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Ildemar Alcantara won · S-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1490

Richardson MoreiravsIldemar AlcantaraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz · Saturday, January 31, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ildemar Alcantara won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Ildemar Alcantara wins(71.1%)

Actual result: Ildemar Alcantara wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ildemar Alcantara at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Richardson Moreira has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Richardson Moreira has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Ildemar Alcantara has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Richardson Moreira

Red Corner

Ildemar Alcantara

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1354

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

182.88 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Richardson Moreira

oldest →

KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · May 14

latest

Ildemar AlcantaraL2 streak

oldest →

vs Leandro Silva · Jun 13

vs Igor Araujo · Oct 13

vs Albert Tumenov · Feb 14

vs Kenny Robertson · Jul 14

vs Kevin Casey · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Richardson MoreiraMetricIldemar Alcantara

1.17

Strikes / min

1.93

1.83

Strikes absorbed / min

2.63

67%

Strike defense

50%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

2.00

100%

Takedown defense

81%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.66evenly matched on net striking-0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Richardson MoreiraIldemar Alcantara

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Richardson Moreira(2 fights)Ildemar Alcantara(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -136.2|Blue +136.2

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Richardson MoreiraTargetIldemar Alcantara

By target zone

23% acc · 80%

Head

20% acc · 57%

20% acc · 7%

Body

50% acc · 24%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

24% acc · 80%

Distance

27% acc · 90%

75% acc · 20%

Clinch

50% acc · 10%

0% acc

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Richardson Moreira rounds

even

Ildemar Alcantara rounds

Round 1Richardson Moreira edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control1:55

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:52Control

Round 2Ildemar Alcantara edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 3Ildemar Alcantara edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:43

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 59

Sig Strikes

21 / 75

25.7%

Sig Str %

23.7%

31 / 76

Total Strikes

31 / 86

0 / 6

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:38

Ctrl Time

1:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ildemar Alcantara	1 / 10	8 / 18	0 / 1
1	Richardson Moreira	6 / 20	22 / 37	0 / 2
2	Ildemar Alcantara	9 / 30	9 / 30	0 / 0
2	Richardson Moreira	3 / 12	3 / 12	0 / 2
3	Ildemar Alcantara	11 / 35	14 / 38	0 / 0
3	Richardson Moreira	6 / 27	6 / 27	0 / 2

Richardson Moreira

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Ildemar Alcantara

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights7