Welterweight

3 Rounds

Richard Walsh won · U-DEC R3

Elo1359

Elo1356

Richard WalshvsSteve KennedyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm · Saturday, November 14, 2015Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Richard Walsh won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRichard Walsh: Elusive strikervsSteve Kennedy: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Richard Walsh wins(69.1%)

Actual result: Richard Walsh wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Richard Walsh at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Richard Walsh enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Richard Walsh has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Richard Walsh has 66pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Richard Walsh

Red Corner

Steve Kennedy

Blue Corner

-420

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+335

(23%)

1359

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Richard WalshL4 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Indich · Apr 14

vs Kiichi Kunimoto · Sep 14

KOvs Alan Jouban · Feb 15

vs Viscardi Andrade · Mar 16

vs Jonathan Meunier · Nov 16

latest

Steve Kennedy

oldest →

SUBvs Peter Sobotta · Jun 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Richard WalshMetricSteve Kennedy

3.84

Strikes / min

2.28

2.72

Strikes absorbed / min

5.52

58%

Strike defense

45%

1.55

TDs / 15 min

2.51

66%

Takedown defense

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12Δ 4.36 — meaningful gap-3.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Richard WalshSteve Kennedy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Richard Walsh(6 fights)Steve Kennedy(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.9|Blue -2.9

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +3.0|Blue -3.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Richard WalshTargetSteve Kennedy

By target zone

46% acc · 62%

Head

34% acc · 82%

68% acc · 14%

Body

50% acc · 8%

92% acc · 24%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

45% acc · 53%

Distance

36% acc · 87%

58% acc · 12%

Clinch

0% acc

80% acc · 35%

Ground

63% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Richard Walsh rounds

even

Steve Kennedy rounds

Round 1Richard Walsh edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:06

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:21Control

Round 2Richard Walsh edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control1:29

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:01Control

Round 3Richard Walsh edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control2:53

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

93 / 170

Sig Strikes

38 / 102

54.3%

Sig Str %

36.7%

132 / 214

Total Strikes

61 / 128

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 8

—

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

4:28

Ctrl Time

4:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Steve Kennedy	10 / 34	13 / 37	2 / 2
1	Richard Walsh	34 / 63	34 / 63	0 / 0
2	Steve Kennedy	13 / 31	32 / 53	1 / 3
2	Richard Walsh	34 / 53	53 / 74	0 / 0
3	Steve Kennedy	15 / 37	16 / 38	0 / 3
3	Richard Walsh	25 / 54	45 / 77	0 / 0

Richard Walsh

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6

Steve Kennedy

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights2