Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jonathan Meunier won · U-DEC R3

Elo1359

Elo1491

Richard WalshvsJonathan MeunierUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · Saturday, November 26, 2016Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Jonathan Meunier won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRichard Walsh: Elusive strikervsJonathan Meunier: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Jonathan Meunier wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Jonathan Meunier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jonathan Meunier at +115 American odds

+$115 profit

$215 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jonathan Meunier has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Jonathan Meunier (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Richard Walsh

Red Corner

Jonathan Meunier

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1359

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'0"

Height

6'3"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Richard Walsh

oldest →

vs Chris Indich · Apr 14

vs Kiichi Kunimoto · Sep 14

KOvs Alan Jouban · Feb 15

vs Steve Kennedy · Nov 15

vs Viscardi Andrade · Mar 16

latest

Jonathan Meunier

oldest →

SUBvs Colby Covington · Jun 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Richard WalshMetricJonathan Meunier

3.84

Strikes / min

3.47

2.72

Strikes absorbed / min

1.43

58%

Strike defense

69%

1.55

TDs / 15 min

0.58

66%

Takedown defense

58%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12evenly matched on net striking+2.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Richard WalshJonathan Meunier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Richard Walsh(6 fights)Jonathan Meunier(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -132.1|Blue +132.1

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +3.1|Blue -3.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Richard WalshTargetJonathan Meunier

By target zone

10% acc · 39%

Head

39% acc · 53%

56% acc · 28%

Body

64% acc · 19%

60% acc · 33%

Leg

64% acc · 28%

By position

16% acc · 67%

Distance

44% acc · 77%

40% acc · 22%

Clinch

70% acc · 22%

40% acc · 11%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Richard Walsh rounds

even

Jonathan Meunier rounds

Round 1Jonathan Meunier edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 2Jonathan Meunier edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:26

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control2:26

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 88

Sig Strikes

74 / 155

21%

Sig Str %

47%

33 / 106

Total Strikes

105 / 186

2 / 8

TDs

1 / 3

20%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:52

Ctrl Time

1:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jonathan Meunier	22 / 46	27 / 51	1 / 1	0
1	Richard Walsh	7 / 32	7 / 32	0 / 0	0
2	Jonathan Meunier	34 / 70	43 / 79	0 / 1	0
2	Richard Walsh	4 / 34	7 / 37	0 / 3	0
3	Jonathan Meunier	18 / 39	35 / 56	0 / 1	0
3	Richard Walsh	7 / 22	19 / 37	2 / 5	1

Richard Walsh

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6

Jonathan Meunier

StanceSwitch

Height75.0"

Reach—

Fights2