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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Cung Le won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1490

Elo1490

Rich FranklinvsCung LeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le · Saturday, November 10, 2012Macau, China

Official fight result

Cung Le won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:17

Style matchupRich Franklin: Elusive strikervsCung Le: Elusive striker

Two technical strikers — likely goes the distance with a close decision.

Model Prediction: Rich Franklin wins(68.2%)

Actual result: Cung Le wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rich Franklin at -450 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rich Franklin is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Cung Le has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Cung Le is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Rich Franklin has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Cung Le has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Rich Franklin has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rich Franklin

Red Corner

Cung Le

Blue Corner

-450

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+400

(20%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

5'9"

193.04 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rich Franklin

oldest →

KOvs Chuck Liddell · Jun 10

vs Forrest Griffin · Feb 11

vs Wanderlei Silva · Jun 12

latest

Cung Le

oldest →

KOvs Wanderlei Silva · Nov 11

vs Patrick Cote · Jul 12

KOvs Michael Bisping · Aug 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rich FranklinMetricCung Le

4.10

Strikes / min

4.36

2.07

Strikes absorbed / min

2.98

62%

Strike defense

66%

1.31

TDs / 15 min

1.37

63%

Takedown defense

88%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.03evenly matched on net striking+1.38

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rich FranklinCung Le

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rich Franklin(4 fights)Cung Le(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rich FranklinTargetCung Le

By target zone

43% acc · 50%

Head

36% acc · 50%

Body

67% acc · 25%

86% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

57% acc · 100%

Distance

50% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rich Franklin rounds

even

Cung Le rounds

Round 1Cung Le edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 21

Sig Strikes

8 / 16

57%

Sig Str %

50%

12 / 21

Total Strikes

8 / 16

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cung Le	8 / 16	8 / 16	0 / 0	0
1	Rich Franklin	12 / 21	12 / 21	0 / 0	0

Rich Franklin

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4

Cung Le

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4