Middleweight

3 Rounds

Rich Attonito won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1361

Rich AttonitovsRafael NatalUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares · Wednesday, September 15, 2010Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Rich Attonito won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Rich Attonito wins(73.6%)

Actual result: Rich Attonito wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rich Attonito at +168 American odds

+$168 profit

$268 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Rafael Natal has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rich Attonito

Red Corner

Rafael Natal

Blue Corner

+168

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-195

(66%)

1490

Elo

1361

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rich Attonito

oldest →

KOvs Jamie Yager · Jun 10

vs David Branch · Dec 10

vs Daniel Roberts · Jun 11

KOvs Jake Hecht · Dec 11

latest

Rafael NatalL3 streak

oldest →

vs Uriah Hall · May 15

KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16

vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16

KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rich AttonitoMetricRafael Natal

2.28

Strikes / min

3.10

2.13

Strikes absorbed / min

2.48

59%

Strike defense

57%

0.74

TDs / 15 min

2.55

75%

Takedown defense

77%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.15evenly matched on net striking+0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rich AttonitoRafael Natal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rich Attonito(5 fights)Rafael Natal(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +129.1|Blue -129.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rich AttonitoTargetRafael Natal

By target zone

22% acc · 60%

Head

20% acc · 50%

50% acc · 8%

Body

24% acc · 18%

89% acc · 32%

Leg

75% acc · 32%

By position

24% acc · 56%

Distance

27% acc · 93%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

53% acc · 40%

Ground

50% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rich Attonito rounds

even

Rafael Natal rounds

Round 1Rich Attonito edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:08

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:44Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Rafael Natal edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:52Control

Round 3Rich Attonito edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control3:08

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 80

Sig Strikes

28 / 102

29.3%

Sig Str %

27.7%

46 / 103

Total Strikes

51 / 132

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 9

TD %

23.3%

Sub Att

Rev

3:16

Ctrl Time

1:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rafael Natal	14 / 48	15 / 51	1 / 2
1	Rich Attonito	13 / 36	22 / 45	0 / 0
2	Rafael Natal	9 / 38	23 / 53	1 / 5
2	Rich Attonito	4 / 17	4 / 17	0 / 1
3	Rafael Natal	5 / 16	13 / 28	0 / 2
3	Rich Attonito	8 / 27	20 / 41	0 / 0

Rich Attonito

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5

Rafael Natal

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16