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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Julian Erosa won · SUB R1

Elo1483

Elo1495

Ricardo RamosvsJulian ErosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Saturday, March 23, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Julian Erosa won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:15

Style matchupRicardo Ramos: WrestlervsJulian Erosa: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Julian Erosa wins(55.6%)

Actual result: Julian Erosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julian Erosa at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Julian Erosa threatens submissions; Ricardo Ramos has lost 43% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Julian Erosa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ricardo Ramos

Red Corner

Julian Erosa

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1483

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ricardo RamosL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Danny Chavez · Jun 22

SUBvs Charles Jourdain · Sep 23

vs Josh Culibao · Aug 24

vs Chepe Mariscal · Mar 25

SUBvs Kaan Ofli · Oct 25

latest

Julian ErosaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Fernando Padilla · Apr 23

SUBvs Christian Rodriguez · Jul 24

KOvs Darren Elkins · Apr 25

vs Melquizael Costa · May 25

KOvs Lerryan Douglas · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ricardo RamosMetricJulian Erosa

2.91

Strikes / min

6.18

3.97

Strikes absorbed / min

6.31

54%

Strike defense

48%

2.51

TDs / 15 min

1.73

67%

Takedown defense

61%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.06evenly matched on net striking-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ricardo RamosJulian Erosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ricardo Ramos(10 fights)Julian Erosa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -11.8|Blue +11.8

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -147.0|Blue +147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ricardo RamosTargetJulian Erosa

By target zone

36% acc · 71%

Head

25% acc · 50%

50% acc · 14%

Body

67% acc · 50%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

By position

40% acc · 86%

Distance

36% acc · 100%

Clinch

50% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ricardo Ramos rounds

even

Julian Erosa rounds

Round 1Ricardo Ramos edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control1:27

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 17

Sig Strikes

4 / 11

41%

Sig Str %

36%

12 / 23

Total Strikes

11 / 21

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

66%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:27

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Julian Erosa	4 / 11	11 / 21	0 / 0	1
1	Ricardo Ramos	7 / 17	12 / 23	2 / 3	0

Ricardo Ramos

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights15

Julian Erosa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18