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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Chepe Mariscal won · U-DEC R3

Elo1483

Elo1527

Ricardo RamosvsChepe MariscalUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · Saturday, March 1, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chepe Mariscal won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRicardo Ramos: WrestlervsChepe Mariscal: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Chepe Mariscal wins(68.7%)

Actual result: Chepe Mariscal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chepe Mariscal at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Ricardo Ramos

Red Corner

Chepe Mariscal

Blue Corner

+245

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-300

(75%)

1483

Elo

1527

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

182.88 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ricardo Ramos

oldest →

KOvs Danny Chavez · Jun 22

SUBvs Charles Jourdain · Sep 23

SUBvs Julian Erosa · Mar 24

vs Josh Culibao · Aug 24

SUBvs Kaan Ofli · Oct 25

latest

Chepe Mariscal

oldest →

vs Trevor Peek · Jun 23

KOvs Jack Jenkins · Sep 23

vs Morgan Charriere · Apr 24

vs Damon Jackson · Aug 24

vs Pat Sabatini · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ricardo RamosMetricChepe Mariscal

2.91

Strikes / min

4.14

3.97

Strikes absorbed / min

2.66

54%

Strike defense

52%

2.51

TDs / 15 min

2.34

67%

Takedown defense

59%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.06Δ 2.54 — meaningful gap+1.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ricardo RamosChepe Mariscal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ricardo Ramos(10 fights)Chepe Mariscal(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -44.0|Blue +44.0

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ricardo RamosTargetChepe Mariscal

By target zone

27% acc · 46%

Head

48% acc · 69%

78% acc · 38%

Body

64% acc · 11%

60% acc · 16%

Leg

65% acc · 20%

By position

38% acc · 86%

Distance

48% acc · 75%

71% acc · 14%

Clinch

74% acc · 16%

Ground

64% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ricardo Ramos rounds

even

Chepe Mariscal rounds

Round 1Chepe Mariscal edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:28

28Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:55Control

Round 2Chepe Mariscal edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

42Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

Round 3Chepe Mariscal edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 91

Sig Strikes

85 / 162

40.3%

Sig Str %

50.3%

37 / 91

Total Strikes

125 / 210

1 / 4

TDs

2 / 5

25%

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:28

Ctrl Time

2:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chepe Mariscal	28 / 49	42 / 66	1 / 3
1	Ricardo Ramos	15 / 28	15 / 28	1 / 2
2	Chepe Mariscal	42 / 67	49 / 76	0 / 1
2	Ricardo Ramos	8 / 24	8 / 24	0 / 0
3	Chepe Mariscal	15 / 46	34 / 68	1 / 1
3	Ricardo Ramos	14 / 39	14 / 39	0 / 2

Ricardo Ramos

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights15

Chepe Mariscal

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6