Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Featherweight
3 Rounds
Josh Emmett won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1493
Ricardo Lamas
Elo1461
Josh Emmett

Ricardo LamasvsJosh EmmettUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos Anjos · Saturday, December 16, 2017Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

Official fight result

Josh Emmett won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:33

Model Prediction: Ricardo Lamas wins(58.3%)

Actual result: Josh Emmett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ricardo Lamas at -290 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Josh Emmett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Ricardo Lamas
Red Corner
VS
Josh Emmett
Blue Corner
-290
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+245
(29%)
1493
Elo
1461
44
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'6"
180.34 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ricardo Lamas
oldest →
W
KOvs Jason Knight · Jul 17
L
vs Mirsad Bektic · Jun 18
W
KOvs Darren Elkins · Nov 18
L
KOvs Calvin Kattar · Jun 19
W
vs Bill Algeo · Aug 20
latest
Josh EmmettL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Ilia Topuria · Jun 23
W
KOvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 23
L
vs Lerone Murphy · Apr 25
L
SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Oct 25
L
KOvs Kevin Vallejos · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ricardo LamasMetricJosh Emmett
3.13
Strikes / min
3.67
2.87
Strikes absorbed / min
4.52
57%
Strike defense
59%
1.84
TDs / 15 min
1.07
46%
Takedown defense
43%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.26Δ 1.11 — meaningful gap-0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1592 vs 1533Strikes30.3 vs 62.3Takedowns1.1 vs 2.3Sub Atts0.67 vs 0.25Form0.6 vs 0.5
Ricardo LamasJosh Emmett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501468148515031520← oldermost recent →
Ricardo Lamas(10 fights)Josh Emmett(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +31.5|Blue -31.5
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ricardo LamasTargetJosh Emmett

By target zone

3
17% acc · 18%
Head
6
19% acc · 60%
4
80% acc · 24%
Body
1
50% acc · 10%
10
71% acc · 59%
Leg
3
75% acc · 30%

By position

17
46% acc · 100%
Distance
10
26% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Ricardo Lamas rounds
1
even
0
Josh Emmett rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
17 / 37
Sig Strikes
10 / 38
45%
Sig Str %
26%
17 / 37
Total Strikes
10 / 38
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Josh Emmett10 / 3810 / 380 / 00
1Ricardo Lamas17 / 3717 / 370 / 00

Ricardo Lamas

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights17

Josh Emmett

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17