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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Ricardo Lamas won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1493
Ricardo Lamas
Elo1369
Jason Knight

Ricardo LamasvsJason KnightUFC Prediction Result

UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · Saturday, July 29, 2017Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Ricardo Lamas won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:34

Model Prediction: Jason Knight wins(61.4%)

Actual result: Ricardo Lamas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jason Knight at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jason Knight enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Ricardo Lamas
Red Corner
VS
Jason Knight
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-115
(53%)
1493
Elo
1369
44
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ricardo Lamas
oldest →
L
KOvs Josh Emmett · Dec 17
L
vs Mirsad Bektic · Jun 18
W
KOvs Darren Elkins · Nov 18
L
KOvs Calvin Kattar · Jun 19
W
vs Bill Algeo · Aug 20
latest
Jason KnightL3 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Alex Caceres · Jan 17
W
KOvs Chas Skelly · May 17
L
vs Gabriel Benitez · Dec 17
L
vs Makwan Amirkhani · May 18
L
vs Jordan Rinaldi · Nov 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ricardo LamasMetricJason Knight
3.13
Strikes / min
2.95
2.87
Strikes absorbed / min
3.02
57%
Strike defense
51%
1.84
TDs / 15 min
1.31
46%
Takedown defense
47%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
1.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.26evenly matched on net striking-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1578 vs 1551Strikes29.2 vs 50.6Takedowns1.1 vs 1.8Sub Atts0.73 vs 2.40Form0.3 vs 0.8
Ricardo LamasJason Knight

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Ricardo Lamas(10 fights)Jason Knight(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +124.1|Blue -124.1
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +189.0|Blue -189.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ricardo LamasTargetJason Knight

By target zone

37
67% acc · 88%
Head
7
21% acc · 88%
2
50% acc · 5%
Body
1
100% acc · 13%
3
100% acc · 7%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

25
63% acc · 60%
Distance
5
19% acc · 63%
7
78% acc · 17%
Clinch
2
29% acc · 25%
10
77% acc · 24%
Ground
1
50% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Ricardo Lamas rounds
0
even
0
Jason Knight rounds
Round 1Ricardo Lamas edged it
Sig. strikes42
Takedowns1
Control2:57
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
42 / 62
Sig Strikes
8 / 35
67%
Sig Str %
22%
43 / 63
Total Strikes
18 / 45
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 1
100%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:57
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jason Knight8 / 3518 / 450 / 10
1Ricardo Lamas42 / 6243 / 631 / 10

Ricardo Lamas

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights17

Jason Knight

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights9