Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Featherweight
3 Rounds
Ricardo Lamas won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1493
Ricardo Lamas
Elo1499
Darren Elkins

Ricardo LamasvsDarren ElkinsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · Saturday, November 17, 2018Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Official fight result

Ricardo Lamas won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:09

Model Prediction: Darren Elkins wins(55.7%)

Actual result: Ricardo Lamas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Darren Elkins at +155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Ricardo Lamas
Red Corner
VS
Darren Elkins
Blue Corner
-175
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+155
(39%)
1493
Elo
1499
44
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ricardo Lamas
oldest →
W
KOvs Jason Knight · Jul 17
L
KOvs Josh Emmett · Dec 17
L
vs Mirsad Bektic · Jun 18
L
KOvs Calvin Kattar · Jun 19
W
vs Bill Algeo · Aug 20
latest
Darren Elkins
oldest →
W
vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22
L
vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22
W
SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23
W
vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24
L
KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ricardo LamasMetricDarren Elkins
3.13
Strikes / min
3.40
2.87
Strikes absorbed / min
3.34
57%
Strike defense
51%
1.84
TDs / 15 min
2.87
46%
Takedown defense
56%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.26evenly matched on net striking+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1557 vs 1613Strikes29.6 vs 38.4Takedowns0.9 vs 2.0Sub Atts0.71 vs 1.11Form-0.4 vs 0.2
Ricardo LamasDarren Elkins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Ricardo Lamas(10 fights)Darren Elkins(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -6.8|Blue +6.8
Recent Form
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +35.0|Blue -35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ricardo LamasTargetDarren Elkins

By target zone

39
44% acc · 56%
Head
50
33% acc · 81%
14
93% acc · 20%
Body
10
48% acc · 16%
17
85% acc · 24%
Leg
2
100% acc · 3%

By position

43
46% acc · 61%
Distance
48
32% acc · 77%
10
83% acc · 14%
Clinch
13
62% acc · 21%
17
94% acc · 24%
Ground
1
50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Ricardo Lamas rounds
0
even
1
Darren Elkins rounds
Round 1Darren Elkins edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns1
Control0:26
20Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:42Control
Round 2Ricardo Lamas edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns1
Control0:35
21Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:46Control
Round 3Ricardo Lamas edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns1
Control1:31
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:11Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
70 / 123
Sig Strikes
62 / 174
56%
Sig Str %
35.3%
80 / 134
Total Strikes
81 / 196
3 / 5
TDs
3 / 6
77.7%
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
0
2:32
Ctrl Time
2:39

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Darren Elkins20 / 5328 / 622 / 40
1Ricardo Lamas14 / 3017 / 331 / 10
2Darren Elkins21 / 6124 / 651 / 10
2Ricardo Lamas28 / 5329 / 541 / 10
3Darren Elkins21 / 6029 / 690 / 10
3Ricardo Lamas28 / 4034 / 471 / 30

Ricardo Lamas

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights17

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights30