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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Ricardo Lamas won · SUB R2

Elo1493

Elo1521

Ricardo LamasvsCharles OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · Saturday, November 5, 2016Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Ricardo Lamas won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:13

Model Prediction: Ricardo Lamas wins(70.6%)

Actual result: Ricardo Lamas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ricardo Lamas at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Ricardo Lamas

Red Corner

Charles Oliveira

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1493

Elo

1521

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ricardo Lamas

oldest →

KOvs Josh Emmett · Dec 17

vs Mirsad Bektic · Jun 18

KOvs Darren Elkins · Nov 18

KOvs Calvin Kattar · Jun 19

vs Bill Algeo · Aug 20

latest

Charles OliveiraW2 streak

oldest →

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25

vs Max Holloway · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ricardo LamasMetricCharles Oliveira

3.13

Strikes / min

3.23

2.87

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

57%

Strike defense

48%

1.84

TDs / 15 min

2.29

46%

Takedown defense

54%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

2.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.26evenly matched on net striking+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ricardo LamasCharles Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ricardo Lamas(10 fights)Charles Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -28.6|Blue +28.6

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ricardo LamasTargetCharles Oliveira

By target zone

50% acc · 64%

Head

69% acc · 85%

33% acc · 9%

Body

100% acc · 8%

100% acc · 27%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

53% acc · 73%

Distance

67% acc · 46%

Clinch

50% acc · 8%

60% acc · 27%

Ground

86% acc · 46%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ricardo Lamas rounds

even

Charles Oliveira rounds

Round 1Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control1:11

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:13Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control1:16

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:24Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 20

Sig Strikes

13 / 18

55.5%

Sig Str %

72.5%

13 / 22

Total Strikes

36 / 42

1 / 1

TDs

2 / 2

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:27

Ctrl Time

3:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charles Oliveira	7 / 10	26 / 30	1 / 1	2
1	Ricardo Lamas	5 / 11	7 / 13	1 / 1	0
2	Charles Oliveira	6 / 8	10 / 12	1 / 1	0
2	Ricardo Lamas	6 / 9	6 / 9	0 / 0	1

Ricardo Lamas

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights17

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36