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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Calvin Kattar won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1493

Elo1474

Ricardo LamasvsCalvin KattarUFC Prediction Result

UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · Saturday, June 8, 2019Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Calvin Kattar won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:06

Model Prediction: Calvin Kattar wins(52.6%)

Actual result: Calvin Kattar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Calvin Kattar at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Calvin Kattar enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Calvin Kattar is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Ricardo Lamas has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Calvin Kattar has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ricardo Lamas

Red Corner

Calvin Kattar

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-175

(64%)

1493

Elo

1474

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ricardo LamasW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jason Knight · Jul 17

KOvs Josh Emmett · Dec 17

vs Mirsad Bektic · Jun 18

KOvs Darren Elkins · Nov 18

vs Bill Algeo · Aug 20

latest

Calvin KattarL5 streak

oldest →

vs Josh Emmett · Jun 22

KOvs Arnold Allen · Oct 22

vs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 24

vs Youssef Zalal · Feb 25

vs Steve Garcia · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ricardo LamasMetricCalvin Kattar

3.13

Strikes / min

4.41

2.87

Strikes absorbed / min

6.55

57%

Strike defense

54%

1.84

TDs / 15 min

0.34

46%

Takedown defense

77%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.26Δ 2.40 — meaningful gap-2.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ricardo LamasCalvin Kattar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ricardo Lamas(10 fights)Calvin Kattar(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +19.1|Blue -19.1

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.9|Blue +1.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ricardo LamasTargetCalvin Kattar

By target zone

17% acc · 17%

Head

39% acc · 50%

80% acc · 33%

Body

85% acc · 50%

50% acc · 50%

Leg

By position

41% acc · 100%

Distance

47% acc · 73%

Clinch

100% acc · 9%

Ground

80% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ricardo Lamas rounds

even

Calvin Kattar rounds

Round 1Calvin Kattar edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 29

Sig Strikes

22 / 41

41%

Sig Str %

53%

12 / 29

Total Strikes

22 / 41

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Calvin Kattar	22 / 41	22 / 41	0 / 0	0
1	Ricardo Lamas	12 / 29	12 / 29	0 / 1	0

Ricardo Lamas

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights17

Calvin Kattar

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights15