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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Ricardo Lamas won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1498

Ricardo LamasvsBill AlgeoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · Saturday, August 29, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ricardo Lamas won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Bill Algeo wins(54.7%)

Actual result: Ricardo Lamas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bill Algeo at +240 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ricardo Lamas has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Bill Algeo (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Ricardo Lamas

Red Corner

Bill Algeo

Blue Corner

-335

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1493

Elo

1498

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'8"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ricardo Lamas

oldest →

KOvs Jason Knight · Jul 17

KOvs Josh Emmett · Dec 17

vs Mirsad Bektic · Jun 18

KOvs Darren Elkins · Nov 18

KOvs Calvin Kattar · Jun 19

latest

Bill AlgeoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Andre Fili · Sep 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Apr 23

vs Alexander Hernandez · Oct 23

KOvs Kyle Nelson · Mar 24

KOvs Dooho Choi · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ricardo LamasMetricBill Algeo

3.13

Strikes / min

5.88

2.87

Strikes absorbed / min

4.38

57%

Strike defense

47%

1.84

TDs / 15 min

1.03

46%

Takedown defense

55%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.26Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap+1.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ricardo LamasBill Algeo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ricardo Lamas(10 fights)Bill Algeo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.0|Blue +5.0

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -48.4|Blue +48.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ricardo LamasTargetBill Algeo

By target zone

60% acc · 62%

Head

46% acc · 64%

80% acc · 19%

Body

69% acc · 25%

80% acc · 19%

Leg

83% acc · 11%

By position

57% acc · 60%

Distance

49% acc · 80%

93% acc · 13%

Clinch

76% acc · 18%

85% acc · 27%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ricardo Lamas rounds

even

Bill Algeo rounds

Round 1Ricardo Lamas edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns1

Control0:32

41Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 2Bill Algeo edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control1:53

34Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 3Ricardo Lamas edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns3

Control3:48

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

104 / 156

Sig Strikes

89 / 168

66%

Sig Str %

54.3%

127 / 180

Total Strikes

145 / 224

5 / 11

TDs

1 / 1

45%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

6:13

Ctrl Time

1:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bill Algeo	41 / 80	47 / 86	0 / 0
1	Ricardo Lamas	47 / 71	48 / 72	1 / 2
2	Bill Algeo	34 / 65	66 / 97	1 / 1
2	Ricardo Lamas	23 / 38	23 / 38	1 / 4
3	Bill Algeo	14 / 23	32 / 41	0 / 0
3	Ricardo Lamas	34 / 47	56 / 70	3 / 5

Ricardo Lamas

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights17

Bill Algeo

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10