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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Ricardo Almeida won · SUB R2

Elo1490

Elo1499

Ricardo AlmeidavsMatt BrownUFC Prediction Result

UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy · Saturday, March 27, 2010Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Ricardo Almeida won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:30

Style matchupRicardo Almeida: WrestlervsMatt Brown: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Matt Brown wins(70.1%)

Actual result: Ricardo Almeida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Brown at +160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ricardo Almeida threatens submissions; Matt Brown has lost 42% of fights by sub.
Matt Brown has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ricardo Almeida

Red Corner

Matt Brown

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1490

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ricardo Almeida

oldest →

SUBvs Matt Hughes · Aug 10

vs TJ Grant · Dec 10

vs Mike Pyle · Mar 11

latest

Matt Brown

oldest →

KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20

vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21

KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21

vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22

KOvs Court McGee · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ricardo AlmeidaMetricMatt Brown

2.02

Strikes / min

3.76

1.20

Strikes absorbed / min

2.92

61%

Strike defense

55%

3.74

TDs / 15 min

1.68

31%

Takedown defense

63%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.82evenly matched on net striking+0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ricardo AlmeidaMatt Brown

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ricardo Almeida(4 fights)Matt Brown(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.4|Blue +8.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ricardo AlmeidaTargetMatt Brown

By target zone

54% acc · 87%

Head

0% acc

67% acc · 13%

Body

100% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

50% acc · 7%

Distance

43% acc · 50%

56% acc · 67%

Clinch

100% acc · 50%

57% acc · 27%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ricardo Almeida rounds

even

Matt Brown rounds

Round 1Ricardo Almeida edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control4:21

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Ricardo Almeida edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns3

Control2:46

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 27

Sig Strikes

6 / 10

54%

Sig Str %

62.5%

24 / 36

Total Strikes

23 / 28

5 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

62.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:07

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Brown	3 / 6	12 / 16	0 / 0	0
1	Ricardo Almeida	10 / 17	13 / 20	2 / 8	0
2	Matt Brown	3 / 4	11 / 12	0 / 0	0
2	Ricardo Almeida	5 / 10	11 / 16	3 / 3	1

Ricardo Almeida

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4

Matt Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights25