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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Ricardo Abreu won · SUB R2

Elo1490

Elo1354

Ricardo AbreuvsWagner SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · Saturday, May 31, 2014Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Ricardo Abreu won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:06

Model Prediction: Wagner Silva wins(50.2%)

Actual result: Ricardo Abreu wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Wagner Silva at +290 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ricardo Abreu threatens submissions; Wagner Silva has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Ricardo Abreu has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ricardo Abreu

Red Corner

Wagner Silva

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+290

(26%)

1490

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ricardo Abreu

oldest →

vs Jake Collier · Jun 15

latest

Wagner Silva

oldest →

SUBvs Colby Covington · Nov 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ricardo AbreuMetricWagner Silva

3.79

Strikes / min

1.69

3.98

Strikes absorbed / min

2.87

68%

Strike defense

65%

2.13

TDs / 15 min

0.00

100%

Takedown defense

58%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.19evenly matched on net striking-1.18

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ricardo Abreu(2 fights)Wagner Silva(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +136.6|Blue -136.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ricardo AbreuTargetWagner Silva

By target zone

29% acc · 82%

Head

15% acc · 35%

71% acc · 15%

Body

67% acc · 12%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

90% acc · 53%

By position

24% acc · 61%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

67% acc · 12%

Clinch

75% acc · 27%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ricardo Abreu rounds

even

Wagner Silva rounds

Round 1Ricardo Abreu edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:28

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Ricardo Abreu edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:46

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 101

Sig Strikes

17 / 52

42%

Sig Str %

47%

43 / 111

Total Strikes

20 / 56

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:14

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Wagner Silva	13 / 46	15 / 48	0 / 1	0
1	Ricardo Abreu	19 / 78	24 / 83	0 / 0	0
2	Wagner Silva	4 / 6	5 / 8	0 / 0	0
2	Ricardo Abreu	14 / 23	19 / 28	0 / 0	1

Ricardo Abreu

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Wagner Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach—

Fights2