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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Jake Collier won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1474

Ricardo AbreuvsJake CollierUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · Saturday, June 6, 2015New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Jake Collier won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRicardo Abreu: WrestlervsJake Collier: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Ricardo Abreu wins(61.6%)

Actual result: Jake Collier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ricardo Abreu at -175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Collier enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Ricardo Abreu has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ricardo Abreu has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Jake Collier has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ricardo Abreu

Red Corner

Jake Collier

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1490

Elo

1474

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'3"

185.42 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ricardo Abreu

oldest →

SUBvs Wagner Silva · May 14

latest

Jake CollierL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Chase Sherman · Jan 22

vs Andrei Arlovski · Apr 22

KOvs Chris Barnett · Sep 22

vs Martin Buday · Apr 23

vs Mohammed Usman · Sep 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ricardo AbreuMetricJake Collier

3.79

Strikes / min

5.80

3.98

Strikes absorbed / min

5.08

68%

Strike defense

50%

2.13

TDs / 15 min

0.71

100%

Takedown defense

67%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.19evenly matched on net striking+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ricardo AbreuJake Collier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ricardo Abreu(2 fights)Jake Collier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +16.6|Blue -16.6

Recent Form

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +203.0|Blue -203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ricardo AbreuTargetJake Collier

By target zone

28% acc · 81%

Head

23% acc · 54%

71% acc · 11%

Body

58% acc · 27%

50% acc · 9%

Leg

62% acc · 19%

By position

29% acc · 81%

Distance

32% acc · 91%

50% acc · 19%

Clinch

32% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ricardo Abreu rounds

even

Jake Collier rounds

Round 1Jake Collier edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:18

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 2Jake Collier edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:30

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Ricardo Abreu edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns2

Control1:18

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 151

Sig Strikes

67 / 211

30%

Sig Str %

31%

69 / 174

Total Strikes

84 / 232

3 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

33.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:06

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jake Collier	26 / 75	28 / 79	0 / 0
1	Ricardo Abreu	17 / 51	18 / 53	0 / 1
2	Jake Collier	19 / 64	21 / 68	0 / 0
2	Ricardo Abreu	9 / 37	29 / 57	1 / 2
3	Jake Collier	22 / 72	35 / 85	0 / 0
3	Ricardo Abreu	21 / 63	22 / 64	2 / 4

Ricardo Abreu

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Jake Collier

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights14