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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Rhys McKee won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1489

Elo1471

Rhys McKeevsDaniel FrunzaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · Saturday, April 5, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rhys McKee won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 5:00

Style matchupRhys McKee: Pressure fightervsDaniel Frunza: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Rhys McKee wins(59.4%)

Actual result: Rhys McKee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rhys McKee at +104 American odds

+$104 profit

$204 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rhys McKee enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Rhys McKee is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Daniel Frunza has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Rhys McKee has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rhys McKee

Red Corner

Daniel Frunza

Blue Corner

+104

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-122

(55%)

1489

Elo

1471

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

198.12 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rhys McKeeL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Khamzat Chimaev · Jul 20

vs Alex Morono · Nov 20

vs Ange Loosa · Sep 23

vs Chidi Njokuani · Mar 24

KOvs Axel Sola · Sep 25

latest

Daniel Frunza

oldest →

SUBvs Charles Radtke · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rhys McKeeMetricDaniel Frunza

4.71

Strikes / min

3.25

7.15

Strikes absorbed / min

4.32

47%

Strike defense

50%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

47%

Takedown defense

50%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.44Δ 1.37 — meaningful gap-1.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rhys McKeeDaniel Frunza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rhys McKee(6 fights)Daniel Frunza(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.2|Blue -18.2

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rhys McKeeTargetDaniel Frunza

By target zone

33% acc · 77%

Head

32% acc · 72%

75% acc · 14%

Body

33% acc · 7%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

90% acc · 21%

By position

38% acc · 88%

Distance

35% acc · 86%

38% acc · 7%

Clinch

60% acc · 14%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rhys McKee rounds

even

Daniel Frunza rounds

Round 1Rhys McKee edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control1:10

Knockdowns3

43Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 111

Sig Strikes

43 / 117

38%

Sig Str %

36%

59 / 133

Total Strikes

50 / 124

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:10

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daniel Frunza	43 / 117	50 / 124	0 / 0	0
1	Rhys McKee	43 / 111	59 / 133	0 / 0	0

Rhys McKee

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights6

Daniel Frunza

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights2