Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Hugo Viana won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1352
Elo1355

Reuben DuranvsHugo VianaUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · Saturday, December 15, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Hugo Viana won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:05

Model Prediction: Hugo Viana wins(58.5%)

Actual result: Hugo Viana wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Hugo Viana at +115 American odds

+$115 profit

$215 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Hugo Viana has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Reuben Duran has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Reuben Duran
Red Corner
VS
Hugo Viana
Blue Corner
-125
(56%)
Vegas Odds
+115
(47%)
1352
Elo
1355
43
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'6"
180.34 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Reuben Duran
oldest →
L
vs Takeya Mizugaki · Mar 11
W
SUBvs Francisco Rivera · Jun 11
L
vs George Roop · Mar 13
latest
Hugo VianaL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs John Teixeira · Jun 12
L
KOvs TJ Dillashaw · Apr 13
W
DECvs Junior Hernandez · Jan 14
L
KOvs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 14
L
vs Guido Cannetti · Aug 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Reuben DuranMetricHugo Viana
3.19
Strikes / min
3.05
2.61
Strikes absorbed / min
3.20
50%
Strike defense
57%
0.98
TDs / 15 min
0.22
25%
Takedown defense
50%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.58evenly matched on net striking-0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1516Strikes54.5 vs 65.0Takedowns1.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.00Form0.1 vs 1.0
Reuben DuranHugo Viana

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Reuben Duran(4 fights)Hugo Viana(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -3.1|Blue +3.1
Recent Form
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Striker Score
Red +2.2|Blue -2.2
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +385.0|Blue -385.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Reuben DuranTargetHugo Viana

By target zone

4
17% acc · 50%
Head
18
53% acc · 82%
3
60% acc · 38%
Body
4
100% acc · 18%
1
100% acc · 13%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

5
19% acc · 63%
Distance
17
53% acc · 77%
3
100% acc · 38%
Clinch
0
0
Ground
5
71% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Reuben Duran rounds
0
even
1
Hugo Viana rounds
Round 1Hugo Viana edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:22
Knockdowns0
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:38Control
3Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
3
8 / 30
Sig Strikes
22 / 39
26%
Sig Str %
56%
8 / 30
Total Strikes
26 / 43
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:22
Ctrl Time
0:38

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Hugo Viana22 / 3926 / 430 / 00
1Reuben Duran8 / 308 / 300 / 00

Reuben Duran

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights4

Hugo Viana

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights6