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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Reuben Duran won · SUB R3

Elo1352

Elo1358

Reuben DuranvsFrancisco RiveraUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale · Saturday, June 4, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Reuben Duran won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:57

Model Prediction: Reuben Duran wins(59.0%)

Actual result: Reuben Duran wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Reuben Duran at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Reuben Duran enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Francisco Rivera enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Reuben Duran threatens submissions; Francisco Rivera has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Francisco Rivera has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Francisco Rivera has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Reuben Duran

Red Corner

Francisco Rivera

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1352

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Reuben DuranL3 streak

oldest →

vs Takeya Mizugaki · Mar 11

KOvs Hugo Viana · Dec 12

vs George Roop · Mar 13

latest

Francisco RiveraL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Urijah Faber · Dec 14

KOvs Alex Caceres · Jun 15

SUBvs John Lineker · Sep 15

vs Brad Pickett · Feb 16

vs Erik Perez · Jul 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Reuben DuranMetricFrancisco Rivera

3.19

Strikes / min

4.07

2.61

Strikes absorbed / min

3.16

50%

Strike defense

68%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

1.01

25%

Takedown defense

68%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.58evenly matched on net striking+0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Reuben DuranFrancisco Rivera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Reuben Duran(4 fights)Francisco Rivera(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.6|Blue +5.6

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Reuben DuranTargetFrancisco Rivera

By target zone

34% acc · 33%

Head

38% acc · 45%

89% acc · 40%

Body

100% acc · 23%

100% acc · 26%

Leg

100% acc · 32%

By position

41% acc · 43%

Distance

46% acc · 50%

81% acc · 31%

Clinch

80% acc · 36%

100% acc · 26%

Ground

75% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Reuben Duran rounds

even

Francisco Rivera rounds

Round 1Reuben Duran edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control3:17

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:58Control

Round 2Reuben Duran edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control2:47

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Reuben Duran edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control0:51

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 71

Sig Strikes

22 / 38

61.7%

Sig Str %

55.7%

101 / 132

Total Strikes

54 / 70

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

44.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:55

Ctrl Time

0:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Francisco Rivera	11 / 14	39 / 42	0 / 1	2
1	Reuben Duran	13 / 20	43 / 50	1 / 3	1
2	Francisco Rivera	8 / 17	12 / 21	0 / 0	1
2	Reuben Duran	23 / 42	48 / 69	0 / 1	0
3	Francisco Rivera	3 / 7	3 / 7	0 / 0	0
3	Reuben Duran	6 / 9	10 / 13	1 / 1	1

Reuben Duran

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Francisco Rivera

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10