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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Francisco Trevino won · U-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1355

Renee FortevsFrancisco TrevinoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · Saturday, March 15, 2014Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Francisco Trevino won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Francisco Trevino wins(51.9%)

Actual result: Francisco Trevino wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francisco Trevino at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Renee Forte has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Renee Forte

Red Corner

Francisco Trevino

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1353

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Renee Forte

oldest →

SUBvs Sergio Moraes · Oct 12

vs Terry Etim · Feb 13

KOvs John Makdessi · Sep 13

latest

Francisco TrevinoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Johnny Case · Jun 15

KOvs Sage Northcutt · Oct 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Renee ForteMetricFrancisco Trevino

2.08

Strikes / min

2.65

2.12

Strikes absorbed / min

2.42

63%

Strike defense

64%

2.32

TDs / 15 min

0.97

66%

Takedown defense

41%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.04evenly matched on net striking+0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Renee ForteFrancisco Trevino

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Renee Forte(4 fights)Francisco Trevino(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.5|Blue +2.5

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -48.6|Blue +48.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Renee ForteTargetFrancisco Trevino

By target zone

18% acc · 79%

Head

37% acc · 62%

38% acc · 21%

Body

40% acc · 13%

0% acc

Leg

52% acc · 26%

By position

16% acc · 64%

Distance

30% acc · 55%

31% acc · 29%

Clinch

74% acc · 36%

100% acc · 7%

Ground

57% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Renee Forte rounds

even

Francisco Trevino rounds

Round 1Renee Forte edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns2

Control2:51

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Francisco Trevino edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control0:43

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:49Control

Round 3Francisco Trevino edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control0:59

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:46Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 70

Sig Strikes

47 / 116

19%

Sig Str %

32%

20 / 79

Total Strikes

63 / 133

5 / 9

TDs

2 / 7

55%

TD %

40%

Sub Att

Rev

4:33

Ctrl Time

2:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Francisco Trevino	0 / 19	8 / 28	0 / 1
1	Renee Forte	3 / 21	7 / 28	2 / 3
2	Francisco Trevino	22 / 49	26 / 53	1 / 1
2	Renee Forte	4 / 23	6 / 25	2 / 3
3	Francisco Trevino	25 / 48	29 / 52	1 / 5
3	Renee Forte	7 / 26	7 / 26	1 / 3

Renee Forte

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Francisco Trevino

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3