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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Rafael Fiziev won · KO/TKO
Elo1523
Renato Moicano
Elo1509
Rafael Fiziev editorial illustration

Renato MoicanovsRafael FizievUFC Prediction Result

UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · Saturday, December 12, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rafael Fiziev won

KO/TKO

Style matchupRenato Moicano: Pressure fightervsRafael Fiziev: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Renato Moicano wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Rafael Fiziev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Renato Moicano at +120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Renato Moicano has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Rafael Fiziev has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Renato Moicano (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Renato Moicano
Red Corner
VS
Rafael Fiziev
Blue Corner
+120
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-140
(58%)
1523
Elo
1509
37
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'11"
Height
5'8"
182.88 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Renato Moicano
oldest →
W
KOvs Jalin Turner · Apr 24
W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 24
L
SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 25
L
vs Beneil Dariush · Jun 25
W
SUBvs Chris Duncan · Apr 26
latest
Rafael Fiziev
oldest →
L
KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Sep 23
L
vs Justin Gaethje · Mar 25
W
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Jun 25
L
KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Jan 26
W
KOvs Manuel Torres · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Renato MoicanoMetricRafael Fiziev
4.10
Strikes / min
4.71
3.55
Strikes absorbed / min
4.84
59%
Strike defense
49%
1.68
TDs / 15 min
0.83
64%
Takedown defense
90%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.55evenly matched on net striking-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1551 vs 1522Strikes4.7 vs 5.4Takedowns0.8 vs 1.3Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.60Form0.3 vs 0.7
Renato MoicanoRafael Fiziev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701488150515231540← oldermost recent →
Renato Moicano(10 fights)Rafael Fiziev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +13.3|Blue -13.3
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red +2.3|Blue -2.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +126.0|Blue -126.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Renato MoicanoTargetRafael Fiziev

By target zone

10
31% acc · 67%
Head
7
39% acc · 33%
3
100% acc · 20%
Body
7
70% acc · 33%
2
100% acc · 13%
Leg
7
100% acc · 33%

By position

14
40% acc · 93%
Distance
20
59% acc · 95%
1
50% acc · 7%
Clinch
0
0
Ground
1
100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Renato Moicano rounds
0
even
1
Rafael Fiziev rounds
Round 1Rafael Fiziev edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
15 / 37
Sig Strikes
21 / 35
40%
Sig Str %
60%
15 / 37
Total Strikes
21 / 35
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 1
0%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:04

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Rafael Fiziev21 / 3521 / 350 / 10
1Renato Moicano15 / 3715 / 370 / 10

Renato Moicano

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights20

Rafael Fiziev

StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights13