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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Renato Moicano won · SUB R2

Elo1523

Elo1512

Renato MoicanovsJai HerbertUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Saturday, June 26, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Renato Moicano won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:34

Style matchupRenato Moicano: Pressure fightervsJai Herbert: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Renato Moicano wins(61.8%)

Actual result: Renato Moicano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Renato Moicano at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jai Herbert has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Renato Moicano

Red Corner

Jai Herbert

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1523

Elo

1512

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Renato Moicano

oldest →

KOvs Jalin Turner · Apr 24

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 25

vs Beneil Dariush · Jun 25

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Apr 26

latest

Jai Herbert

oldest →

vs Kyle Nelson · Jul 22

vs Fares Ziam · Jul 23

vs Rolando Bedoya · Aug 24

vs Chris Padilla · Mar 25

KOvs Mandel Nallo · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Renato MoicanoMetricJai Herbert

4.10

Strikes / min

3.19

3.55

Strikes absorbed / min

3.34

59%

Strike defense

52%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

0.42

64%

Takedown defense

66%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.55evenly matched on net striking-0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Renato MoicanoJai Herbert

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Renato Moicano(10 fights)Jai Herbert(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.9|Blue -10.9

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +2.4|Blue -2.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -140.0|Blue +140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Renato MoicanoTargetJai Herbert

By target zone

62% acc · 92%

Head

19% acc · 57%

100% acc · 4%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 43%

By position

43% acc · 12%

Distance

28% acc · 100%

Clinch

68% acc · 88%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Renato Moicano rounds

even

Jai Herbert rounds

Round 1Renato Moicano edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns3

Control3:20

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Renato Moicano edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns2

Control4:15

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 41

Sig Strikes

7 / 25

61.5%

Sig Str %

62.5%

61 / 83

Total Strikes

18 / 38

5 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

70.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:35

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jai Herbert	6 / 24	10 / 28	0 / 0	0
1	Renato Moicano	8 / 14	25 / 35	3 / 4	0
2	Jai Herbert	1 / 1	8 / 10	0 / 0	0
2	Renato Moicano	18 / 27	36 / 48	2 / 3	1

Renato Moicano

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20

Jai Herbert

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights8