← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Renato Moicano won · U-DEC R3

Elo1523

Elo1514

Renato MoicanovsDrew DoberUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Saturday, February 3, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Renato Moicano won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRenato Moicano: Pressure fightervsDrew Dober: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Renato Moicano wins(64.4%)

Actual result: Renato Moicano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Renato Moicano at -205 American odds

+$49 profit

$149 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Renato Moicano threatens submissions; Drew Dober has lost 36% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Drew Dober (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Renato Moicano

Red Corner

Drew Dober

Blue Corner

-205

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1523

Elo

1514

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Renato Moicano

oldest →

KOvs Jalin Turner · Apr 24

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 25

vs Beneil Dariush · Jun 25

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Apr 26

latest

Drew DoberW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ricky Glenn · Oct 23

KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24

KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25

KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25

KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Renato MoicanoMetricDrew Dober

4.10

Strikes / min

4.48

3.55

Strikes absorbed / min

4.33

59%

Strike defense

53%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

0.61

64%

Takedown defense

58%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.55evenly matched on net striking+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Renato MoicanoDrew Dober

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Renato Moicano(10 fights)Drew Dober(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.8|Blue -8.8

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +329.0|Blue -329.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Renato MoicanoTargetDrew Dober

By target zone

51% acc · 87%

Head

34% acc · 74%

100% acc · 9%

Body

57% acc · 17%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

37% acc · 43%

Distance

37% acc · 83%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

92% acc · 52%

Ground

50% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Renato Moicano rounds

even

Drew Dober rounds

Round 1Renato Moicano edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control3:48

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Renato Moicano edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns2

Control3:19

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:01Control

Round 3Renato Moicano edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control3:26

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 42

Sig Strikes

23 / 59

50%

Sig Str %

39.3%

142 / 177

Total Strikes

36 / 73

3 / 6

TDs

1 / 2

38.7%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

10:33

Ctrl Time

1:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Drew Dober	6 / 20	7 / 21	0 / 0
1	Renato Moicano	6 / 12	43 / 54	1 / 2
2	Drew Dober	6 / 13	17 / 25	1 / 1
2	Renato Moicano	2 / 5	34 / 42	2 / 3
3	Drew Dober	11 / 26	12 / 27	0 / 1
3	Renato Moicano	15 / 25	65 / 81	0 / 1

Renato Moicano

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20

Drew Dober

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26