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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Renato Moicano won · SUB R1
Elo1523
Renato Moicano
Elo1492
Damir Hadzovic

Renato MoicanovsDamir HadzovicUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · Saturday, March 14, 2020Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil

Official fight result

Renato Moicano won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:44

Model Prediction: Renato Moicano wins(67.8%)

Actual result: Renato Moicano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Renato Moicano at -345 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Renato Moicano has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Renato Moicano
Red Corner
VS
Damir Hadzovic
Blue Corner
-345
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+315
(24%)
1523
Elo
1492
37
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'9"
182.88 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Renato Moicano
oldest →
W
KOvs Jalin Turner · Apr 24
W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 24
L
SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 25
L
vs Beneil Dariush · Jun 25
W
SUBvs Chris Duncan · Apr 26
latest
Damir HadzovicL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Polo Reyes · Feb 19
L
vs Christos Giagos · Jun 19
W
vs Yancy Medeiros · Jun 21
L
vs Marc Diakiese · Jul 22
L
KOvs Terrance McKinney · Feb 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Renato MoicanoMetricDamir Hadzovic
4.10
Strikes / min
3.34
3.55
Strikes absorbed / min
3.74
59%
Strike defense
59%
1.68
TDs / 15 min
0.91
64%
Takedown defense
34%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.55evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1534 vs 1507Strikes5.5 vs 3.0Takedowns1.2 vs 0.7Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.20Form-0.4 vs 0.0
Renato MoicanoDamir Hadzovic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Renato Moicano(10 fights)Damir Hadzovic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +30.3|Blue -30.3
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Renato MoicanoTargetDamir Hadzovic

By target zone

1
50% acc · 100%
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 100%

By position

1
50% acc · 100%
Distance
1
20% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Renato Moicano rounds
0
even
0
Damir Hadzovic rounds
Round 1Renato Moicano edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns1
Control0:25
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
1 / 2
Sig Strikes
1 / 5
50%
Sig Str %
20%
4 / 5
Total Strikes
1 / 5
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:25
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Damir Hadzovic1 / 51 / 50 / 00
1Renato Moicano1 / 24 / 51 / 11

Renato Moicano

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights20

Damir Hadzovic

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10