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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Renato Moicano won · U-DEC R3

Elo1523

Elo1474

Renato MoicanovsCalvin KattarUFC Prediction Result

UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · Saturday, April 7, 2018Brooklyn, New York, USA

Official fight result

Renato Moicano won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRenato Moicano: Pressure fightervsCalvin Kattar: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Calvin Kattar wins(71.4%)

Actual result: Renato Moicano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Calvin Kattar at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Calvin Kattar enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Renato Moicano

Red Corner

Calvin Kattar

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1523

Elo

1474

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Renato Moicano

oldest →

KOvs Jalin Turner · Apr 24

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 25

vs Beneil Dariush · Jun 25

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Apr 26

latest

Calvin KattarL5 streak

oldest →

vs Josh Emmett · Jun 22

KOvs Arnold Allen · Oct 22

vs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 24

vs Youssef Zalal · Feb 25

vs Steve Garcia · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Renato MoicanoMetricCalvin Kattar

4.10

Strikes / min

4.41

3.55

Strikes absorbed / min

6.55

59%

Strike defense

54%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

0.34

64%

Takedown defense

77%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.55Δ 2.69 — meaningful gap-2.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Renato MoicanoCalvin Kattar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Renato Moicano(10 fights)Calvin Kattar(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +175.0|Blue -175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Renato MoicanoTargetCalvin Kattar

By target zone

45% acc · 52%

Head

27% acc · 85%

67% acc · 16%

Body

63% acc · 12%

83% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

115

56% acc · 99%

Distance

29% acc · 100%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Renato Moicano rounds

even

Calvin Kattar rounds

Round 1Renato Moicano edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Renato Moicano edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Renato Moicano edged it

Sig. strikes51

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

116 / 206

Sig Strikes

41 / 140

55%

Sig Str %

28%

117 / 207

Total Strikes

41 / 140

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Calvin Kattar	15 / 47	15 / 47	0 / 1
1	Renato Moicano	25 / 56	25 / 56	0 / 0
2	Calvin Kattar	9 / 38	9 / 38	0 / 0
2	Renato Moicano	40 / 64	40 / 64	0 / 0
3	Calvin Kattar	17 / 55	17 / 55	0 / 1
3	Renato Moicano	51 / 86	52 / 87	0 / 0

Renato Moicano

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20

Calvin Kattar

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights15