← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

5 Rounds

Renato Moicano won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1523

Elo1546

Benoit Saint Denis editorial illustration

Renato MoicanovsBenoit Saint DenisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Saturday, September 28, 2024Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Renato Moicano won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 5:00

Style matchupRenato Moicano: Pressure fightervsBenoit Saint Denis: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Benoit Saint Denis wins(65.1%)

Actual result: Renato Moicano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Benoit Saint Denis at -258 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Renato Moicano has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Benoit Saint Denis (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Renato Moicano

Red Corner

Benoit Saint Denis

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-258

(72%)

1523

Elo

1546

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Renato Moicano

oldest →

vs Drew Dober · Feb 24

KOvs Jalin Turner · Apr 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 25

vs Beneil Dariush · Jun 25

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Apr 26

latest

Benoit Saint Denis

oldest →

SUBvs Kyle Prepolec · May 25

SUBvs Mauricio Ruffy · Sep 25

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Nov 25

KOvs Dan Hooker · Jan 26

SUBvs Paddy Pimblett · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Renato MoicanoMetricBenoit Saint Denis

4.10

Strikes / min

5.62

3.55

Strikes absorbed / min

4.09

59%

Strike defense

42%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

4.19

64%

Takedown defense

72%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.55evenly matched on net striking+1.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Renato MoicanoBenoit Saint Denis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Renato Moicano(10 fights)Benoit Saint Denis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -23.5|Blue +23.5

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Renato MoicanoTargetBenoit Saint Denis

By target zone

70% acc · 92%

Head

30% acc · 52%

0% acc

Body

71% acc · 40%

80% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

49% acc · 34%

Distance

42% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

92% acc · 66%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Renato Moicano rounds

even

Benoit Saint Denis rounds

Round 1Renato Moicano edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns1

Control4:37

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Benoit Saint Denis edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:16

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 72

Sig Strikes

25 / 60

66.5%

Sig Str %

59%

72 / 98

Total Strikes

35 / 70

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:53

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Benoit Saint Denis	4 / 5	12 / 13	0 / 0
1	Renato Moicano	35 / 40	57 / 66	1 / 1
2	Benoit Saint Denis	21 / 55	23 / 57	0 / 0
2	Renato Moicano	15 / 32	15 / 32	0 / 2

Renato Moicano

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20

Benoit Saint Denis

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13