← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Renan Barao won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1378

Elo1492

Renan BaraovsUrijah FaberUFC Prediction Result

UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · Saturday, February 1, 2014Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Renan Barao won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:42

Style matchupRenan Barao: Well-roundedvsUrijah Faber: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Renan Barao wins(65.3%)

Actual result: Renan Barao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Renan Barao at -335 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Renan Barao enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Renan Barao has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Renan Barao

Red Corner

Urijah Faber

Blue Corner

-335

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+305

(25%)

1378

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Renan BaraoL5 streak

oldest →

vs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 17

vs Brian Kelleher · Feb 18

vs Andre Ewell · Sep 18

KOvs Luke Sanders · Feb 19

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 19

latest

Urijah Faber

oldest →

vs Dominick Cruz · Jun 16

vs Jimmie Rivera · Sep 16

vs Brad Pickett · Dec 16

KOvs Ricky Simon · Jul 19

KOvs Peter Yan · Dec 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Renan BaraoMetricUrijah Faber

3.78

Strikes / min

2.65

3.90

Strikes absorbed / min

2.59

57%

Strike defense

64%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

1.54

91%

Takedown defense

58%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12evenly matched on net striking+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Renan BaraoUrijah Faber

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Renan Barao(10 fights)Urijah Faber(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -114.1|Blue +114.1

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Renan BaraoTargetUrijah Faber

By target zone

34% acc · 76%

Head

14% acc · 38%

20% acc · 6%

Body

50% acc · 38%

100% acc · 18%

Leg

67% acc · 25%

By position

34% acc · 59%

Distance

21% acc · 63%

42% acc · 29%

Clinch

43% acc · 38%

40% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Renan Barao rounds

even

Urijah Faber rounds

Round 1Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:15

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 46

Sig Strikes

8 / 31

36%

Sig Str %

25%

37 / 70

Total Strikes

9 / 32

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Urijah Faber	8 / 31	9 / 32	0 / 2	0
1	Renan Barao	17 / 46	37 / 70	0 / 0	0

Renan Barao

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17

Urijah Faber

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18