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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Renan Barao won · U-DEC R3

Elo1378

Elo1356

Renan BaraovsScott JorgensenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit · Saturday, February 4, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Renan Barao won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRenan Barao: Well-roundedvsScott Jorgensen: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Renan Barao wins(64.5%)

Actual result: Renan Barao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Renan Barao at -215 American odds

+$47 profit

$147 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Renan Barao enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Scott Jorgensen enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Renan Barao has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Renan Barao has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Renan Barao

Red Corner

Scott Jorgensen

Blue Corner

-215

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1378

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

177.8 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Renan BaraoL5 streak

oldest →

vs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 17

vs Brian Kelleher · Feb 18

vs Andre Ewell · Sep 18

KOvs Luke Sanders · Feb 19

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 19

latest

Scott JorgensenL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jussier Formiga · Mar 14

vs Danny Martinez · Jun 14

SUBvs Wilson Reis · Oct 14

vs Manvel Gamburyan · Jul 15

KOvs Alejandro Perez · Nov 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Renan BaraoMetricScott Jorgensen

3.78

Strikes / min

3.37

3.90

Strikes absorbed / min

3.41

57%

Strike defense

65%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

2.61

91%

Takedown defense

59%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12evenly matched on net striking-0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Renan BaraoScott Jorgensen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Renan Barao(10 fights)Scott Jorgensen(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +22.1|Blue -22.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Renan BaraoTargetScott Jorgensen

By target zone

27% acc · 65%

Head

29% acc · 71%

70% acc · 15%

Body

78% acc · 19%

77% acc · 19%

Leg

78% acc · 10%

By position

102

34% acc · 98%

Distance

35% acc · 99%

67% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Renan Barao rounds

even

Scott Jorgensen rounds

Round 1Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:31

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control1:24

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes49

Takedowns0

Control0:00

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

104 / 299

Sig Strikes

73 / 206

33.7%

Sig Str %

34%

129 / 324

Total Strikes

82 / 215

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 7

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:55

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Scott Jorgensen	18 / 53	20 / 55	0 / 4
1	Renan Barao	26 / 86	29 / 89	0 / 0
2	Scott Jorgensen	18 / 63	25 / 70	0 / 2
2	Renan Barao	29 / 90	51 / 112	0 / 0
3	Scott Jorgensen	37 / 90	37 / 90	0 / 1
3	Renan Barao	49 / 123	49 / 123	0 / 0

Renan Barao

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17

Scott Jorgensen

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights12