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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Renan Barao won · U-DEC R3

Elo1378

Elo1359

Renan BaraovsPhillipe NoverUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · Saturday, September 24, 2016Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil

Official fight result

Renan Barao won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Renan Barao wins(61.2%)

Actual result: Renan Barao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Renan Barao at -640 American odds

+$16 profit

$116 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Renan Barao enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Renan Barao has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Renan Barao

Red Corner

Phillipe Nover

Blue Corner

-640

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+470

(18%)

1378

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Renan BaraoL5 streak

oldest →

vs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 17

vs Brian Kelleher · Feb 18

vs Andre Ewell · Sep 18

KOvs Luke Sanders · Feb 19

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 19

latest

Phillipe NoverL2 streak

oldest →

vs Yui Chul Nam · May 15

vs Zubaira Tukhugov · Dec 15

vs Rick Glenn · Feb 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Renan BaraoMetricPhillipe Nover

3.78

Strikes / min

1.79

3.90

Strikes absorbed / min

2.48

57%

Strike defense

56%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

0.99

91%

Takedown defense

44%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12evenly matched on net striking-0.69

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Renan BaraoPhillipe Nover

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Renan Barao(10 fights)Phillipe Nover(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.5|Blue -18.5

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -171.0|Blue +171.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Renan BaraoTargetPhillipe Nover

By target zone

28% acc · 42%

Head

21% acc · 64%

64% acc · 22%

Body

59% acc · 26%

74% acc · 36%

Leg

80% acc · 10%

By position

41% acc · 91%

Distance

24% acc · 82%

67% acc · 9%

Clinch

86% acc · 15%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Renan Barao rounds

even

Phillipe Nover rounds

Round 1Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control0:11

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control1:18

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 151

Sig Strikes

39 / 141

42%

Sig Str %

27%

64 / 152

Total Strikes

54 / 157

3 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:29

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Phillipe Nover	11 / 41	11 / 41	0 / 0
1	Renan Barao	23 / 58	23 / 58	0 / 0
2	Phillipe Nover	13 / 48	13 / 49	0 / 0
2	Renan Barao	25 / 55	25 / 56	1 / 1
3	Phillipe Nover	15 / 52	30 / 67	0 / 0
3	Renan Barao	16 / 38	16 / 38	2 / 2

Renan Barao

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17

Phillipe Nover

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4